Soybeans rallied on Wednesday to close 16 ½ cents higher in the Jan contract on the heels of surging crude oil, early gains in gold and a weakening US dollar. Jan Soybeans traded to within ¼ cent of the contract highs. December Soybean oil however did trade into new contract highs closing at its highest level in 33 years. Volume in the soybean complex was extremely heavy for the 3rd consecutive session trading 199,505 Soybeans, Oil 65,480, Meal 46,184. Funds were back on the buy side buying 6,000 soybeans, 4,500 oil and 2,500 meal.
Early opening calls are higher but the crude oil market is trading lower at this time and could influence today's trade. USDA soybean export sales came out today at 740,600 mt. at the upper range of analyst expectations of 500,000 to 750,000 mt. Deliveries overnight were at 109. Brazil grain analyst AgRural esimates Brazil producers have planted 22% of the crop vs. 23% at this time last year. Mato Grosso is 43% planted vs. 26% last week and 43% last year. FC Stone is set to release their Corn and Soybean production estimates this afternoon. Taiwan is expected to re-tender to buy 16,000 mt of US soybeans on Friday. Overnight Malaysian palm oil futures surged to a record high boosted by rising crude oil prices and short covering traders say. Indonesia palm oil also jumped to record highs. Chinese Soybean, and Oil futures closed higher, Meal mixed.
Early Opening Calls: Soybean 7 to 10 higher, Meal $1.00 to $2.00 higher, Oil .20 to .40 higher
Top News
**USDA Soybeans 07/08 Export Sales Net: 740,600 mt; 08/09 Net: none mt; expected 500k-750k
**USDA Soybean Meal 07/08 Export Sales Net: 203,900 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: 400 mt; expected 75k-125k
**USDA Soybean Oil 07/08 Export Sales Net: 14,800 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: none mt; expected 5k-10k
-- 60,000 mt of Soybeans in Thursday tender passed by Taiwan
-- Argentina's soy outlook remains somewhat mixed, with an increase in acreage at war with ideas of lowered yields
-- Thursday FOMC lowers Fed Funds rate 25 bps to 4.50% from 4.75%, they also lowered Discount rate 25 bps to 5.00% from 5.25%
-- Dalian Soybean May futures 23 yuan/mt higher at 4406 yuan/mt; Soymeal futures just 2 yuan higher; Soyoil futures 80 y/mt higher at 8946 yuan/mt basis the May futures.
-- Malaysian Palm Jan futures settled 50 ringgit higher at 2930 ringgit.
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 135,749; Pit Vol. 57,209; Open Interest Change: -5,433
-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Below Normal Temps. Normal to Below Precip. The Corn Belt looks dry today into Sunday.
-- Outside markets. Energy: crude new all time high again at $96.24/bbl in electronic session, products higher too ; Gold & Silver: both lower; US $ shows strength against Euro, slightly higher vs Yen basis the Dec futures.
Cash Markets
--CIF Soybeans up 1 to 6. Nov. +44 to +52, Dec. +44 to +50, Jan. +49 to +50, Feb. +33 to +42, Mar. +40 to +43, Apr. +35 to +40, May +35 to +40, J/J +38 to +45.
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
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