Like many commodity markets on Monday beans closed lower. The Jan contract ended Monday's session down 7 ½ cents. An overall commodity sell-off began in the early morning hours starting in Asia. The $US made all time lows against many major currencies and then began a firm rebound causing commodity prices to plunge. Traders say weaker export sales also hurt bean prices Monday. After opening 20 lower a rebounding wheat market helped bring back the bean complex. Volume on Monday was very heavy especially in beans with the CBOT reporting 171,120 soybean contracts traded, 39,554 meal and 38.091 oil traded. Funds were on the sell side Monday selling 2,500 soybeans, 2,000 oil and 1,000 meal.
Early opening calls are higher. A decline overnight in the $US has commodity markets bouncing off their lower closes yesterday including Jan beans which have erased most of yesterdays losses. Crude oil and gold have rebounded overnight posting higher levels this A.M. Traders say some of the overnight rally is the result of profit taking on yesterdays short selling. Others say it's a continuation of the overall bullish scenario of tight supplies and high demand. More talk today of La Nina developing. Weekly crop progress reports show soybean harvest progressing with little to no problems across the Midwest. Taiwan did tender for 10,000 mt. US Soybeans which will be shipped in containers for Jan. Spot basis bids in the Midwest were reported to be rising after a slowdown in harvest late last week due to wet weather and strong export demand. Overnight Chinese Soybean, Meal and Oil futures closed higher. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed lower.
Early Opening Calls: Soybeans 5 to 7 higher, Meal $1.00 to $2.00 higher, Oil .10 to .20 higher.
Top News
-- 10,000 mt of US soybeans for January delivery tendered for by Taiwan
-- South Korean livestock feed manufactuers purchase 55k tons of soybean meal, South American origin, for $416.73 c/f
-- South Korean livestock feed manufactuers also purchased 36k tons of rapeseed meal, Indian/Canadian origin, for around $245/ton
-- Brazil soybean planting 4% complete vs week ago 1%, behind year ago progress of 12% & long term average of 7%, acc. to Safras Mercado
-- Monday's USDA crop progress report shows Soybean harvest was 75% complete in latest week up from the 66% complete last week & but behind last year's 76% pace & 5 yr avg pace of 78% complete.
-- Monday's USDA Soybeans Export Inspections: 27.171 mln mt; expected 30.5 mln mt
-- Dalian Soybean May futures 60 yuan/mt higher, soymeal & soyoil futures higher in overnight trading also
-- Malaysian Palm futures finished Tuesday down 10 ringgit to 2,704 ringgit.
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 124,941; Pit Vol. 40,543; Open Interest Change: +493
-- Weather: Above Normal Temps. Normal to below Precip. The eastern Corn Belt will see showers and thunderstorms today.
-- Outside markets. Energy: crude 30c higher, products higher ; Gold +$4.10 & Silver: 14c higher; US $ lower vs Euro, slightly higher vs Yen
*REMINDER* census crush released 10/25/07, Nov first notice day 10/31/07, Nov S/D Production report 11/9/2007 and NOPA crush 11/14/2007.
Cash Markets
--CIF Soybeans steady up 5. Oct. +25 to +40, Nov. +40 to +46, Dec. +40 to +47, Jan. +47 to +55, Feb. +30 to +40, Mar. +35 to +42, Apr. +35 to +40.
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
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fax: (312) 896-2050
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