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Thursday Morning Soybean Update


Beans ended Wednesdays session down 3 ¾ cents on Wednesday. Beans opened lower and rallied 19 ½ cents before breaking into the close. Traders said improved planting conditions in South America mainly Moto Grosso was cited as the reason for the weakness. Additionally, areas that have been wet, Argentina and Rio Grande go Sul got a break from the heavy rainfall they have been receiving helping planting progress there. Volume was heavy on Wednesday, 141,796 soybeans traded, 58,810 oil and 37,481 meal traded. Funds sold 3,000 soybeans, 1,000 meal and bought 1,000 oil.

Early opening bean calls are 5 to 7 higher. In other news the Argentine Ag Secretary issued its first 2007,08 planted soybean area at 16.5 mil hectares vs. 16.1 mil last year. The decrease in plantings are due to higher corn plantings. Taiwan passed on their planned Thursday Oct 18th tender for 10,000 mt of US soybeans. This tender was announced last Thursday. Soybean Rust was found in Owen County in south central Indiana. While the crop is well past the stage where rust can do any damage it is more evidence of a migration of this disease northward. So far this year rust has been reported in 214 counties in the US. Weekly export sales released this morning came in within expectations Meal sales were on the low end of expectations and Oil sales were above expectations. Overnight Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher. Chinese Soybeans, meal and oil finished higher.

Early Opening Calls: higher Soybeans 5 to 7 higher, Meal $1.00 to $2.00 higher, Oil .20 to .30 higher

Top News

**USDA Soybeans 07/08 Export Sales Net: 750,000 mt; 08/09 Net: 19,500 mt; expected 700,000-950,000

**USDA Soybean Meal 07/08 Export Sales Net: 100,400 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: 5,000 mt; expected 50-150,000

**USDA Soybean Oil 07/08 Export Sales Net: 26,400 mt; 08/09 Export Sales Net: none mt; expected 5-20,000

-- Argentina's Ag Ministry declares soybean planting intentions at 40.77 mil acres

-- Export News: Taiwan Sugar passed on their planned Thursday Oct 18th tender for 10,000 mt of US soybeans. This tender was announced last Thursday.

-- USDA confirms soybean rust found in south central Indiana. The finding was the first found case in Indiana this year, but officials note very late stage of crop & expect little damage could have occurred

-- Major ethanol power Verasun has suspended construction of a biorefinery in Indiana, acc. to a company statement

-- Poet reiterates "no retreat" stance on biofuels - no plans to curtail production, despite lack of profitability, amid reports of cancelled expansion plans, facility mothballing by some producers

-- October cattle on feed report will be released on Friday, early sample of analysts see On-Feed at 94-97% of year ago numbers, while Marketings during Sept were in a range of 94-98 & placement of animals on feedlots ranged at 102-112% of year ago figures.

-- Merrill Lynch analyst, Francisco Blanch, is bullish on ag commodity price gains over the next 12 months, suggests ag commodity price rises will eclipse energy & metals price gains, as supply of ag commodities will not keep pace with global demand.

-- Dalian Soybean futures May contract 9 yuan/mt higher, active May soymeal futures 8 yuan higher; active May soyoil futures off 58 yuan/mt

-- Malaysian Palm oil Jan futures rose 0.8% to 2,735 ringgit or about $813/mt

-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 106,072; Pit Vol. 30,453; Open Interest Change: +4,584

-- Weather: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Below Precip. Corn Belt will see showers and thunderstorms today

-- Outside markets. Energy:crude higher, products higher ; Gold & Silver: both higher; US $ lower vs Euro & Yen.

Cash Markets

-- CIF Soybeans steady weak . Oct. +14 to +25, LH Oct. +18 to +30, Nov. +34 to +40, Dec. +34 to +44, Jan. +42 to +48, Feb. +25 to +38, Mar. +35 to +42, Apr. +30 to +40.

 

Nathan T. Smith III

Linn Group

nsmith@linngroup.com

toll free: (877) 787-6278

local: (312) 896-2090

fax: (312) 896-2050

 

Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss

 


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About the author



Nate has been a working in the futures markets since 1991 and has been with the Linn Group since 1998.

The Linn Group is a privately held CFTC and NFA registered FCM, specializing in a wide range of clearing services for Introducing Brokers, Commercial Hedgers, CTA's and individual futures traders around the globe.

The Linn Group is headquartered at the Chicago Board of Trade on the 12th floor in the Atrium and is an established financial institution with our major strengths coming from our quality of brokers, analysts, and support staff.

 

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