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Tuesday Morning Soybean Update


Soybean future prices fell sharply on Monday closing the November contract down 15 cents. Traders say the main driver of the lower prices for soybeans and soy products was wheat. The wheat market was limit down, hit by profit taking and long liquidation by funds after record high prices. Soybeans were also being pressured by some talk of rains in drier growing areas in Brazil. A few showers were reported in Northern Brazil over the weekend but the coverage was low and farmers indicate more rain is needed. Also adding to the weakness yesterday was a $ 2.19 lower close in Crude Oil dragging bean oil lower. Volumes were very heavy, trading 174,899 soybeans, 43,184 meal and 60,629 soybean oil. Fund liquidation was heavy with funds selling an estimated 5,000 soybeans, 2,000 oil and 2,000 meal.

Today's early opening calls are higher based on reports of lower than expected yields in the US and an expected bounce from the sharp declines on Monday. Continued concerns of hot and dry weather in Northern Brazil are also somewhat supportive. Crude oil has firmed this morning up 36 cents in the November contract adding some stability to bean oil. China is back in the market traders say after last weeks holiday and expectations are for them to step up soy purchases. Brazil grain analyst Celeres estimates Brazil Soybean planting at 1% complete vs. 2% last year. They estimate the state of Matto Grosso is 2% planted vs. 6% last year. Oil World said its tentative

Brazilian soybean crop estimate of 62.3 million mt. for early 2008 (up 3.0 million mt.) was in jeopardy due to critical weather and planting conditions. This afternoon the USDA will release their weekly crop conditions/progress report (delayed due to the Columbus day Holiday). Overnight Chinese Soybean and Soybean Oil futures closed higher, Meal lower. Malaysian Palm oil futures closed higher up 2%.

Early Opening Calls: higher. Beans 5 to 10 higher, meal $ 2.00 to $4.00 higher, Oil, .10 to .20 higher.

Top News

-- USDA will release Grain Export Inspections at 10:00 AM CDT, delayed a day due to Columbus Day holiday

-- USDA will release Crop Progress/Conditions report at 3:00 PM CDT, delayed a day due to Columbus Day holiday

-- Goldman Roll noted in the soybean spread trade Monday, acc. to floor sources

-- Celeres weekly estimate of 07/08 forward soybean sales was unchanged in latest week standing at 26%, the long term average forward sales for this time period is 24%.

-- Satellite imaging company released US Corn & Soybean crop estimates Monday, suggesting US Corn crop at 13.1 bln while Soybean crop was estimated at 2.56 bln. Those figures compare to the USDA's Sept crop estimate at 13.3 bln & 2.62 bln of corn & soy respectively.

-- Lack of rain worrying to producers in Brazil, with soybean planting on the horizon, acc. to trade groups

-- Industry official says nearly 1.3 mln mt of Indian soymeal have been forward sold. The bulk of the forward sales were to asian countries including China, Japan, S Korea & Vietnam.

-- S Korea feedmills buy 45,000 mt of India soymeal for delivery between Jan 30 & Feb 15 late last week, officials say price was $399.50/mt

-- Dalian Soybean futures active May 9 yuan/mt higher, nearbys lower, defereds higher. Soymeal futures mostly lower, soyoil futures mostly higher.

-- Malaysian Palm ends 50 ringgit higher at 2,592 ringgit/mt (about $763/mt) as other Asian vegoil futures gained overnight.

-- Malaysian Palm Board releases September export, production, & stocks figures Wednesday.

-- Private forecasters release Malaysian palm oil export figures on Wednesday

-- eCBOT Vol. 122,797; Pit Vol. 47,576; Open Interest Change: +160

-- Weather: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip.

-- Outside markets. Energy: crude & products lower ; Gold & Silver: both lower; US $ sharply higher vs Euro, higher vs Yen.

  Cash Markets

--CIF Soybeans lower off 2 to 5 . Oct. +26 to +35, LH Oct. +30 to +37, Nov. +44 to +54, Dec. +40 to +44, Jan. +46 to +50, Feb. +30 to +42, Mar. +37 to +??

 

Nathan T. Smith III

Linn Group

nsmith@linngroup.com

toll free: (877) 787-6278

local: (312) 896-2090

fax: (312) 896-2050

 

Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss

 


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About the author



Nate has been a working in the futures markets since 1991 and has been with the Linn Group since 1998.

The Linn Group is a privately held CFTC and NFA registered FCM, specializing in a wide range of clearing services for Introducing Brokers, Commercial Hedgers, CTA's and individual futures traders around the globe.

The Linn Group is headquartered at the Chicago Board of Trade on the 12th floor in the Atrium and is an established financial institution with our major strengths coming from our quality of brokers, analysts, and support staff.

 

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