November Soybeans ended just ¼ cent higher after trading in a narrow 7 ¾ cent range. Beans were higher most of the trading session but weakened towards the close. This was only the 3rd time in the last month and a half that beans were kept in a range less than 10 cents. Volume was heavy despite the narrow range trade, 103,042 soybean volume, 57,359 oil and 45,744 meal. Traders say wheat trading higher helped beans as did dry conditions in Brazil. Conditions are expected to stay dry in Mato Grosso for the next week and traders say this is supportive for the time being. Funds on Monday sold an estimated 3,000 soybean oil, bought 1,000 soybeans and 2,500 meal.
Overnight grain markets were weaker with beans being the leader down 11 cents. Overnight markets were under pressure in general on talks of traders taking profits in gold and crude oil as well. Yesterday after the close the USDA released the weekly crop progress reports showing soybean harvest 29% complete vs 12% complete last week and 18% last year and 24% average. Conditions declined slightly down 1% to 57 Good to Excellent. FC stone issued a new soybean estimate at 2.72 bil. bu vs. their September estimate of 2.682 and the USDA's September estimate of 2.619 mil. bu. Brazil grain analyst Celeres estimated the 2007/08 Brazil Soybean Production at 63.0 mmt up 2.6% from their previous estimate and up 6.9% from last year. Export demand is expected to be slow this week with China on holiday. Overnight Malaysian Palm Oil Futures closed sharply lower.
Early Opening Calls: Beans 11-12c lower; soyoil 20-25 lower; soymeal $2 lower
Top News
-- FC Stone estimates 2007 US Corn production at 13.445 Bln bu in latest report vs prior report of 13.062 Bln on yield of 157.4 bpa, sees US Soybean crop at 2.722 Bln bu in latest report vs 2.682 Bln bu. on avg yield of 43 bpa.
-- In its latest report Celeres estimates Brazil's 2007/08 soybean crop at 63 mln mt vs 58 mln mt. The group sees acres rising to 22.5 mln ha. On exports they expect 26.7 mln mt exported vs lst years 25 mln mt.
-- Celeres estimates 26% of 2007/08 soybean crop has been forward sold, up 1% point from last week
-- USDA Soybean crop good to excellent conditions fell 1% to 57% in latest week, while very poor to poor rose 1% to 17%. Harvest was at a 29% pace, 17% points ahead of prior week vs 24% 5 yr avg.
-- Farmer's trade association executive in Nebraska estimates the state could produce 1 bil gallons of ethanol yearly, with current consumption at 816 million, could mean the state would be self-sufficient if cars could be converted to 100% ethanol blend
-- Argentina sunflower oilseed planting crawls along, gaining only +1.3% from last week; pegged at 13.5% - same time last year = 17.6%
-- Argentina's corn crop nearly 10% planted as of last Friday, gaining over +4% from the previous week, but still behind last year's 12% pace, acc. to BAGE
-- Timely rains assisting Argentine wheat development, with 73% of the crop declared "good to excellent", acc. to the BAGE
-- Texas A & M and Ceres Inc are attempting to develop cellulosic ethanol based upon cane sorghum feedstock; developing efficient strains and researching enzymes
-- Stats Canada numbers on Thursday eagerly awaited by wheat traders; average total production estimates are between 19.6 and 20.5 mil tons
-- Senate Ag Committee will work out markup details on the upcoming US Farm Bill on Wednesday, acc. to gov sources
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Monday's Export Inspections Recap
Wheat Export Inspections: 39.384 mln mt; expected 37.5 mln mt, previous = 41.387
Corn Export Inspections: 42.994 mln mt; expected 40.5 mln mt, previous = 45.354
Soybeans Export Inspections: 11.152 mln mt; expected 18.0 mln mt, previous = 16.722
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-- Malaysian Palm December futures finished sharply lower off 49 ringgit, as weak crude oil & soyoil markets weigh on prices
-- eCBOT Vol. 71,482; Pit Vol. 25,782; Open Interest Change: +4,779
-- Weather: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move west to east across the Corn Belt today
-- Outside markets. Energy lower; Gold & Silver: sharply lower; US $ sharply higher vs Euro, but flat vs Yen.
Cash Markets
--CIF Soybeans off 1-3 . Sept. +30 to +??, Oct. +31 to +35, Nov. +46 to +52, Dec. +33 to +44, Jan. +44 to +48, Feb. +30 to ??, Mar. +30 to +35
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
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