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Daily Futures Spotlight 10/02/2007


That may describe the mentality of stock index futures traders, as the Dow Jones futures surged to an all-time high yesterday afternoon. The rally in the U.S. stock market comes despite prediction from leading experts that the chances of the U.S falling into a recession remain 50/50, and talk from leading fund managers that the Fed has not yet restored confidence in the U.S. credit market. The U.S. housing market is stilled marred in a slump, with a report out this morning expecting to show that pending home sales fell to the lowest levels since the index has been calculated starting in 2001. So why are investors enamored with stocks again? Well, one reason might be the changing focus by Federal Reserve to prevent a slowing of the U.S economy from being an inflation fighter. The 50 basis point rate cut in September signaled that the Fed is willing to tolerate some moderate increase in inflation to prevent a recession in the U.S. This gave traders the confidence to move assets back into the stock market, especially multi-national blue chips, as the belief that the Fed will continue with its “accommodative” stance and keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Whether this tactic works and prevents a rapid slowdown of the U.S. economy or just fuels another speculative “bubble” in securities is still unknown, but for stock index bulls, “let the good times begin!”

Looking at the daily chart for the December mini-Dow futures, we notice traders still in a buying mood after yesterday’s record setting session. Prices are well above all the major moving averages, and momentum remains strong. The 14-day RSI is now in moderately overbought territory, with a current reading of 81.67. Yesterday’s highs of 14198 will act as resistance, with support found at 13782. In early trade, December mini-Dow Jones futures are trading at 14166, up 9.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future trading results. Trading commentary and analysis is based on information taken from trade and statistical services, news services, and other sources which XPRESSTRADE believes are reliable. We do not warrant that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. XPRESSTRADE's policy is to publish market research that is objective, clear, fair, and not misleading. Trading commentary and analysis reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no assurance that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made on a strictly unsolicited basis by the account holder.


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About the author


Mike's futures career began in 1991, when he began trading for himself as a floor trader at the Mid-America Commodities Exchange (MidAm) in the wheat and corn futures and options pits. In 1999, Mike joined TD Waterhouse as a securities broker where he obtained his series 7 and 63 licenses. Seeing the growth in online futures trading, He joined XPRESSTRADE in 2002. Mike attended DePaul University and the University of Illinois at Chicago and holds the series 3 license. He's now an assistant manager at XPRESSTRADE and a senior market analyst. In his free time, he can be found attending symphony or other cultural events in the city.

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