November beans settled lower on Tuesday by 5 ¾ cents. Interesting to note this is the 3rd lowest close in as many days totaling 15 ½ cents. Traders note that after last months rise in prices of $ 1.92 this recent break is negligible considering the price rally. Technical traders continue to point out that beans are correcting overbought conditions rather than weakening. Support for November soybeans is in the $975 to $965 area traders say. Volume on Tuesday was moderate in beans and heavy in oil with 93,939 soybeans traded, 65,704 soybean oil and 48,936 meal. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 2,500 beans, 5,000 oil and even in meal.
The Chinese Government announced they will sell 178,000 mt of soyoil and 22,000 mt. of Rapeseed Oil out of reserves Friday. The USDA confirmed soybean rust was found in a Southern Ill. County and two counties in Missouri but officials say only late developing double crop beans are at risk and with 87 % of the soybean crop in Ill dropping leaves and 22% harvested the yield loss should be minimal if at all. Soybean planting in Northern sections of Mato Grosso is continuing but limited to areas that received isolated rains over the past weekend. Grain analyst Celeres estimates Brazil soybean producers have sold 25% of the 2007/08 crop vs 13% sold last year on this date. Overnight Chinese Soybeans and meal closed higher, Oil lower. Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses on Wednesday as declines in soybean oil and crude oil prices were an excuse to book profits.
Early Opening Calls: Beans 3 to 5 higher, meal $ 1.50 to $2.00 higher, bean oil .10 to .15 higher.
Top News
-- USDA quarterly grain stocks will be released on Friday morning along with Annual Small Grains summary will be released at 7:30 AM this Friday. Corn stocks on Sep 1 2006 were 1.967 bln bu, collectively analysts expect this year's figure to be 1.15 bln bu. Year ago Sept '06 Soybean stocks were 449 mln bu, and analyst only expect stocks to be marginally higher at 550 mln bu this year on Sept 1. Finally, quarterly wheat stocks are estimated at 1.83 bln bu vs same time frame year ago at 1.75 bln bu.
-- Interim USDA chief says doesn't see any need to allow CRP land to exit the program early, but says the final decision will take another few weeks, but analyst do not see his comments friendly to early cropland exit
-- Crop analyst Celeres says 25% of new crop soybeans have been sold forward compared to 5 yr avg of 22% , meanwhile 06/07 crop has been 91% sold up 2% points from prior week
-- Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be released at 2 pm CDT this Friday.
-- 78% of Saskatchewan grain & oilseed crop harvested through the week ending Sept 23, that's behind last year's 92%, but ahead of 5 yr avg of 62%. NE section of province has he least harvest progression, while the southwest corner is the most advanced, acc. to province ag report
-- The USDA confirmed Soybean Rust was found in a county in Southern Illinois and two counties in Missouri. Illinois officials said only late developing double crop Soybeans were at risk.
-- Dalian Soybean futures higher, May sharply higher up 59 yuan/mt; soymeal futures showed strength, but active soyoil futures were lower as China will sell veg oil from state reserves on Friday.
-- Malaysian Palm futures were lower as traders suggest profit taking after the recent run up in prices.
-- Intertek data shows Palm Oil exports from Malaysia in Aug 1-25 period was 12% higher to same period in August
-- SGS Palm Oil exports data from Malaysia in Aug 1-25 period was 11.9% higher compared to same period in August
-- eCBOT Vol. 67,697; Pit Vol. 20,878; Open Interest Change: +2,874
-- Weather: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt will see showers and thunderstorms today favoring the east.
-- Outside markets: Energy complex: crude higher after yesterdays pull back & higher ahead of weekly stocks report, products higher ; Gold & Silver lower; US $ higher vs Euro & Yen
Cash Markets
--CIF Soybeans up 2 to 5. Sept. +33 to +39, Oct. +36 to +42, Nov. +47 to +55, Dec. +35 to +48, Jan. +42 to +50, Feb. +30 to ??, Mar. +35 to +37
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