Here Comes the Bear! Corn and Beans Have Topped-Out
Friday, September 30, 2011
by John C. Booth of Archer Financial Services
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Here Comes the Bear! Corn and Beans Have Topped-Out
By John Booth, Archer Financial Services
What a great opportunity to hedge corn and soybeans, or to speculate on the short side. I understand that the current price level on corn is the highest ever during harvest. Just look at the weekly chart on corn; a classic top pattern in an over-bought market. The obvious support level is 4.25, but I believe our first target should be 5.20 where this market is likely to consolidate.
CORN FUTURES - WEEKLY CONTINUATION
Chart provided by APEX
I refer you to an article of mine written Friday, July 29, 2011, in which I cited the top pattern on November soybeans and suggested a move down to 11.80. I believe that 11.80 will be met before the November contract goes of the board. Now look at the weekly soybean chart and you'll see a powerful sell signal! My new target for front month beans is 10.50. Be aware that patience will be required and rallies are to be expected; reactions in a bear market. How often, in recent months have we all heard that the Board of Trade markets had been influenced by "outside markets?" Last Friday, September 23, ended with weekly chart sell signals on a good number of "outside markets," including the stock market indices. Corn and soybeans ended that week in the same bearish condition. I'm going with those analysts that look for greater yields on corn and beans than had been expected. Of course, any speculative position must be protected in order to manage risk.
SOYBEAN FUTURES - WEEKLY CONTINUATION
Chart provided by APEX
One of the great advantages in futures trading is the ability to easily seek profit during periods of falling prices. Let's take advantage of our advantages. Let me know your needs and goals in the futures markets...we'll then be able to determine if I may be of assistance to you. Looking forward to your response.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
John Booth began his career as a commodity futures broker in 1974 with Heinold Commodities. His experience includes branch office management, regional management and service as a division president of the Futures Industry Association (FIA).
After many years with the Fox Division of MF Global, Mr. Booth now conducts his trading and brokerage business through Archer Financial Services, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of ADM Investor Services. He works with both corporate hedge accounts and individual speculative traders. His trading approach emphasizes price structure and sound money management.