Soybeans ended the week much like it started, down. For the day November soybeans ended down 6 ¾ cents. For the week November soybeans lost 73 ¼ cents. Since the release of the USDA's acreage reduction for soybeans the soybean market surged higher to new contract highs until last week. Changes in weather bringing in wetter cooler forecasts last weekend put an abrupt end to the surge in prices. Volume was moderate to quiet on Friday with an estimated 103,016 soybean futures traded, 44,162 soybean oil and 39,966 meal futures traded. Funds sold an estimated 3,500 beans, 500 oil and 800 meal.
Today's focus goes back to weather as it usually does this time of year especially for soybeans. Early calls are 7 to 10 cents lower based upon favorable weather conditions. Weather will be most important for soybeans in the next few weeks as we approach the key pod setting stage. Rains have moved across the dry parts of Iowa and are being blamed for the lower prices overnight. Friday's CFTC commitments of traders report for futures and options combined showed that as of last Tuesday, large speculators were long 150,205, down 14,685 from the previous week and short 25,169, down 5,134. Index funds were long 162,094, up 7,913 from the previous week. In Mea, large speculators were long 61,963, down 459 from the previous week and short 7,638, up 22.and short 7,499, up 3,181. In Oil, large speculators were long 77,503, down 3,547 from the previous week and short 13,166, down 133. Index funds were long 78,613, down 1,159 from the previous week and short 3,234, up 408. Chinese Soybean futures and meal closed lower and bean oil slightly higher. Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed 1 percent lower on Monday, dragged down by lower prices of rival soybean oil and declining exports.
Early Opening Calls: Beans 7 to 10 cents lower, meal $ 2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil .20 to .30 lower.
Top News
-- 55,000 mt of soymeal tender for by Nonghyup feed of S Korea, acc. to cash merchandisers
-- China's agriculture ministry said on it's web site Monday that stabilizing the autumn grain supply is going to be a big challenge because of floods, droughts, typhoons, plant disease, and insects.
-- Chinese customs data shows June soybean imports fell 31% to 2.52 mln mt vs same month year ago.
-- Chinese customs data shows 13.9 mln mt of soybeans were imported in 1st half of 2007, down 1.4% from same period year ago.
-- Dalian Soybean futures settled lower in overnight trade. Soymeal was also under pressure, however soyoil settled slightly higher.
-- Malaysian Palm crude oil futures were lower in overnight trade.
-- eCBOT Vol. 73,837; Pit Vol. 27,309; Open Interest Change: -7,469
-- Outside markets. Energy: crude 44c lower, products also lower ; Gold & Silver: slightly higher; US $ unchanged to slightly higher
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt
Jly -32/-16 U +42/43 U -5/ U 430
Aug -30/-22 U +43/44.5 U +12/ U +60/ U 460
Oc/No -25/-5 X +35/38 U +30/ Z +70/ U 600
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil
Chicago -65 Q +4 U -60 U
Toledo -56 Q +9 U -35 U
Dec ILL -54 Q -18 U -14 Q -385 Q
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
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