Question:

Pete, I think I noted, then lost, some numbers of interest regarding coffee that I believe you mentioned in your commentary.  I cannot find coffee statistics for carry over, crop history, or estimated harvest at the NTBOT or elsewhere.

Where can I find this data? Or, could you forward some coffee statistics and carry-over estimates to me? Thank you for your attention.

Ernest

Answer:

Good Afternoon,

I use a private news service that we pay for to get my numbers. Go ahead and send me your address and I'll mail you a very nice calendar that will get you up to speed on coming reports.

Regards,

Pete Thomas
PThomas@rjobrien.com

LACK OF SUPPLY THREAT AND OUTLOOK FOR BIG CROPS KEEPS BUYERS AT BAY

The technical action is weak and end user buyers seem to be going hand-to-mouth and waiting for better supply and lower prices ahead before extending coverage. With ample supply at consuming countries, this set-up looks bearish. September coffee traded lower in tandem with London Robusta contracts yesterday, which fell from the recent highs amid profit taking. Coffee producers in Brazil sold 22 percent of the 2007/08 crop by June 30th, versus 17 percent of much bigger crop sold in the same period last year, according to an analysis issued by a private forecasting firm. The 2007/08 crop is estimated at 36.5 million bags. However, volume sales for the period appear to be similar to those reached last year. Meanwhile, a cold weather front moved into Brazil from the South Atlantic. However, no crop damaging frost is expected to reach coffee growing areas. The lowest temperature expected in the main coffee growing area, Minas Gerais, was 5 degrees Celsius. The crop is over 50% harvested. Uganda's coffee production is expected to reach at least 2.5 million bags this season, up 14% from last year. For now, traders expect big crops next year for Vietnam and Brazil which has kept buyers unwilling to extend coverage.

FUNDAMENTAL FOCUS:
NYBOT certificated coffee stocks were up 12,809 bags to 4.232 million bags with 99,077 bags pending review. Increasing stocks seems to be limiting the upside advance as the US moves though a seasonally weak time frame for roaster demand.