The week started out promising for the economy with increased personal income of +.5% versus +.3% until the consumption number came out lower than expected at +.1% versus +.3%. This is a sign that more people are saving money rather than spending money which further translates into a sign of a slowing economy. In addition to the decline in consumption and spending, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index came out much lower than expected at 53.5 versus 58.0. The significant decline shocked the markets causing the dollar to drop hard and the interest rate markets to rally. It was no big surprise for the weekly trend to continue as the construction spending was down .3% versus unchanged as expected. Weekly jobless claims continue to rise slightly as well. The monthly nonfarm payroll number came out +92,000 versus +125,000 with a slight increase in the average hourly earnings. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% which is the lowest unemployment rate since May 2001. Needless to say, the key resistance in the interest rate markets held this morning as a result of the report.
The economic weakness has trickled over into the dollar as well as the stock market. Over the past week, the stock market has continued to make a new low each day and broke near term support. There has also been continued hype in the market that a long term high should be occurring in the next week for the stock market. The timing is incredibly coincidental with the elections amongst us next week.
December Ten Year Note Technical Levels:
Trend Direction: Long term Trend Sideways, Short Term Trend is higher, but turning flat.
Resistance: 108-20.0
Support: 107-28.5, 107-15.0; 106-20.0
Financial Reports for the week of November 6th - November 10th:
Tuesday: Election Day!!
Wednesday: API/EIA Energy Stocks - 9:30 am CST
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims - 7:30 am CST
US Trade Balance - 7:30 am CST
Wholesale Trade - 9:00 am CST
EIA Gas Storage - 9:30 am CST
Friday: Veteran's Day Observed - A few markets are closed









