An exerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary
Price: 2.0029
| Resistance: | 2.0030 | 2.0070 | 2.0093 | 2.0138 |
| Support: | 1.9988 | 1.9960 | 1.9929 | 1.9900 |
| Bias: | Mixed – waiting for breaks but still cautiously prefer a bearish stance |
| Daily Bullish: | Price held above the 1.9951 support and this tends to suggest potential for a complex correction and a retest of 2.0068-74. However, we should allow for a more erratic sideways consolidation. Thus to generate a more bullish stance we need to see the 2.0030 resistance break followed by 2.0075. If seen the pressure will be for a retest of the 2.0131 high. Take care there. Only above extends to 2.0200-25 at least. |
| MT Bullish: | The decline from 2.0131 has been positive but not enough to confirm a reversal. Thus only a break above 2.0138 would imply stronger gains initially to 2.0225 and eventually to 2.0504. (April 20th) |
| Daily Bearish: | No break of 1.9951 but we tend to feel this suggests a more complex correction that should remain below 2.0068-74. Earlier resistance is around the 2.0030 area. We still need to take care but to generate losses we require a break below 1.9960-67 and if seen it should cause follow-through below 1.9951 towards 1.9900-29. Again still take care there. Only breach would imply losses to 1.9863 and 1.9807. |
| MT Bearish: | We are beginning to feel more confident of the likelihood that 2.0131 formed a major high. However, still to be safe we require a breach of 1.9900 and if seen look for 1.9807 and possibly 1.9737. (April 24th) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
24th April
Still no confirmation of the possible larger peak at 2.0131. However, we still note an alternative possible Wave iv at 1.9900-30 (being a 50%-58.6% retracement.)
The resistance at 2.0067 has held and this is bringing the bias to a more bearish stance and while the structure is not 100% clear we suspect that the original 1.9983 low was Wave –i- and the 2.0068 high was a 58.6% retracement in Wave –ii- and thus we can expect extension in Wave –iii- to the 138.2% projection at 1.9863-86 at least and we suspect this could go to the 223.6% projection at 1.9737.
Only back above 2.0068-93 would revert to a bullish structure.
Ian Copsey
See Also
- FX-Strategy Pro Commentary
Unique, consistent and comprehensive analysis
