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Daily Futures Spotlight 04-10-2007


Soybeans: The USDA estimated 2006-07 Soybean ending stocks at 615 million bushels, up from the 595 million bushels estimated in March and above analyst's estimates of 585 million bushels. The USDA also raised world carryover to 61.02 million metric tons, up just over 3.5 million metric tons from last month's estimates. Higher production from South America should keep supplies buoyant this year and reduce US exports as buyers move to obtain cheaper supplies from Brazil and Argentina.

Corn: US Corn carryout estimates also increased to 877 million bushels, up from 752 million bushels in March and nearly 50 million bushels above pre-report estimates. World stocks increased by just over 4 million metric tons from the March estimate to stand at 91.82 million metric tons. The high cost of Corn for livestock feed was the main reason for the higher carryout figure as livestock producers cut back or switched to other feedstock over Corn.

Wheat: US Wheat supplies decreased by 50 million bushels to stand at 422 million bushels according the USDA; this was also lower than most traders were looking for. World carryover remained steady at 121.2 million metric tons. Wheat was one of the beneficiaries of the high feed cost of Corn, as livestock producers increased their use of feed Wheat. The USDA also expects US Wheat exports to increase as US Wheat is now priced competitively in the world market.

Current calls by CBOT traders are for Corn to open 2 to 4 cents lower, Soybeans 3 to 5 cents lower and Wheat 1-2 cents higher. However, given yesterday's weak close in the entire grain complex, some traders are looking for the entire complex to start the day in the red. Wheat traders should remain cautious until the extent of the crop damage is known after freezing temperatures struck the US Wheat belt over the weekend.

Futures and Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future trading results. Trading commentary and analysis is based on information taken from trade and statistical services, news services, and other sources which XPRESSTRADE believes are reliable. We do not warrant that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. XPRESSTRADE's policy is to publish market research that is objective, clear, fair, and not misleading. Trading commentary and analysis reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no assurance that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made on a strictly unsolicited basis by the account holder.


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Mike's futures career began in 1991, when he began trading for himself as a floor trader at the Mid-America Commodities Exchange (MidAm) in the wheat and corn futures and options pits. In 1999, Mike joined TD Waterhouse as a securities broker where he obtained his series 7 and 63 licenses. Seeing the growth in online futures trading, He joined XPRESSTRADE in 2002. Mike attended DePaul University and the University of Illinois at Chicago and holds the series 3 license. He's now an assistant manager at XPRESSTRADE and a senior market analyst. In his free time, he can be found attending symphony or other cultural events in the city.

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