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Just A Few Signs Of Weakness In The Market


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The market opened on its highs and trended lower most of the day.  There was a late day rally following a failure to make a second leg lower.  Sound familiar?  It was option expiration day and it wasn't a day setup for a large decline. 

In the latest round of bad news that just keeps dragging this market lower...India has raised interest rates in an effort to slow their economy and fight inflation.  Ahh, what's next! 

Sometimes it is funny to think about what the headlines would say if this market were down 30 percent this year.  You have stifling federal deficits, Greece is bankrupt and several other countries are close, India and China are slowing their economy, very high and stagnant unemployment rates, serious threats of the U.S. losing their AAA rating and the list goes on.  You would think these headlines reflect a much lower market and not one that has rallied 60 to 90 percent in the last year.  This is why I favor technical analysis over fundamental analysis.

Monday should make for an interesting trading day.  We have the healthcare circus over the weekend and more news out of Europe could surface.  Recent history tells us Monday will be another trend higher day.  The charts are breaking down a bit and Monday could be a sharp downward day in a normal world.  However, we are not in a normal world.  I have to err on the side of buying dips.  A sharply lower close on Monday might have me thinking the tide has changed. 



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About the author


Chuck Kowalski has been involved in the futures industry for more than 15 years as a trader, broker and analyst.  Chuck is the lead analyst at CommoditiesStreet.com.  He also covers Commodities for About.com.

Chuck primarily day trades the Emini S&P futures contracts, but also trades the emini Nasdaq and other commodity markets for longer-term trades.

He tries to give a trading recap everyday on the trade setups that he looks for in the Emini.  The goal is to not use overly complicated trading strategies and formulas in trading.  Most of the trading is based on price action, which works across all markets and timeframes.  Support / resistance levels are also used to monitor overbought and oversold levels to filter and sometimes initiate trades.

You can read Chuck’s coverage of commodities at http://commodities.about.com/  and www.commoditiesstreet.com.

Chuck Kowalski
Email: chuck@commoditiesstreet.com

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