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Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are higher with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index up +0.43% and June S&Ps up +0.30 of a point. The euro slipped to a 1-week low against the dollar after Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said that the IMF "will probably do part" of Greece's financing needs. Banking stocks are leading European stocks higher after Lloyds surged 8.9% when it said trading has been "strong" in the first 10 weeks of 2010 and that it may be profitable this year while impairments will be better than previously forecast. European oil service stocks gained after Barclays Capital upgraded the sector to "positive" from "neutral," saying "we believe investors in the sector still face the threat of a market pull-back in the near term, but it is clear to us that the industrial situation for oil services is beginning to improve." Limiting gains for stocks were comments from EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Rehn who said "the worst is over, the economic recovery is now in progress, but it is still not self-sustaining and employment has not yet turned for the better." Also undercutting stock prices is the report from EPFR Global that said European equity funds posted net outflows of $1.06 billion in the week ended Mar 17, the biggest withdrawals since May 2009, amid concerns about Greece's debt burden.

  • The Asian markets today closed higher with Japan up +0.75%, Hong Kong +0.19%, China +0.81%, Taiwan +0.15%, Australia +0.19%, Singapore +0.06%, South Korea +0.67%, India +0.34%. Asian stock markets closed higher as an improving outlook for the global economy lifted expectations for corporate earnings. Japan's biggest exporters closed higher on increased confidence that the global recovery will continue after the US Mar Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and the Feb CPI reports were better than expected. South Korean stocks were boosted after Kia Motors, the country's second-biggest automaker, closed 4.2% higher after it said it would add a 100 million-euro ($136 million) engine unit to its factory in Slovakia. Stocks in China gained led by a rally in raw-material producers after copper prices rose and after Aluminum Corp. of China agreed to buy a stake in an African iron ore mine.

Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +0.30 of a point. The US stock market yesterday consolidated its recent rally and finished mixed (Dow Jones +0.42%, S&P 500 -0.03%, Nasdaq Composite +0.09%). The Dow Jones rallied to a 17-1/2 month high. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) slack inflation pressures after the Feb CPI rose less than expected and as the year-over-year increase in core CPI was the smallest in 6 years (CPI unchanged m/m and +2.1% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y and core CPI +1.3% y/y versus expectations of +1.4% y/y), (2) the +0.1 rise in Feb leading indicators, their 11th consecutive monthly increase, (3) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (+1.3 to 18.9 versus expectations of +0.4 to 18.0), (4) comments from the CEO of FedEx, who after reporting that his company's quarterly profit more than doubled, said there will be "solid GDP growth" in the US in the near term led by gains in inventory restocking and manufacturing, which signals that the economic expansion may continue as FedEx along with rival UPS are bellwethers for the global economy because they deliver goods throughout the world ranging from electronics to clothing, and (5) the action by Barclays Capital to lift its 2010 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 to $71 a share from $66 a share, along with its hike in its US GDP estimate for 2010 to 3.6% from 3.5%.

  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over weakness from a drop in European stocks on concern that Greece will fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union, (2) weakness in financial stocks after a rumor circulated that the Fed will soon increase the discount rate for the second time in a month, and (3) the drop in energy and raw-material producers after the stronger dollar prompted a sell-off in most commodities.

  • Palm (PALM) plunged 12% in European trading after it forecast revenue in the quarter ending in May will be less than $150 million, far less than analysts' estimates of $300 million. The company also reported its 11th straight quarterly loss and Deutsche Bank AG slashed its price estimate on the stock 38% to $5.

Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +1 tick. T-note prices yesterday posted a 1-1/2 week high early but shed its gains and moved lower the remainder of the day and settled down -8.5 ticks at 117-030. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/2 week low of 3.610% before it ended at 3.671%. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (+1.3 to 18.9 versus expectations of +0.4 to 18.0), and (2) rumors that the Fed will soon increase the discount rate for the second time in a month. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) slack inflation pressures after the Feb CPI rose less than expected and as the year-over-year increase in core CPI was the smallest in 6 years (CPI unchanged m/m and +2.1% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y and core CPI +1.3% y/y versus expectations of +1.4% y/y), and (2) an increase in the safe-haven demand for Treasuries as concern grows that Greece will fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union.

  • The dollar index this morning is trading at a 1-week high with the dollar/yen +0.12 yen and the euro/dollar -0.51 cents. The dollar index yesterday strengthened and closed higher. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) a slump in the euro to a 1-week low after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou said he may turn to the IMF for aid unless EU leaders agree to set up a lending facility at a summit scheduled for next week, (2) the action by Barclays Capital to cut its 2010 Euro-Zone GDP forecast to 1.1% from a Dec forecast of 1.5%, which is euro negative, (3) the prediction from Yasuda Asset Management that the yen may fall to 100 per dollar by year-end as the Fed raises interest rates faster than the BOJ, and (4) the warning from the CEO of Deutsche Bank that Greece must be rescued to keep the "fire" from spreading to other countries and inflicting losses on German banks. Bearish factors included (1) a strengthening in yuan forwards after Chinese officials said they were conducting yuan stress tests for 12 industries to test the ability of companies to withstand a stronger currency, which signals China may soon allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar, and (2) the weaker than expected Feb CPI, which may keep the dollar's interest rate differentials weak as the Fed may see no need to hike interest rates anytime soon.

  • April crude oil prices this morning are down -66 cents and Apr gasoline is -1.69 cents. Apr crude oil prices yesterday weakened as they closed down -$0.73 per barrel. Apr gasoline closed down -0.88 of a cent per gallon. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the dollar, which dampens investment demand for commodities, and (2) weakness in gasoline on speculation that the recent increase in profit margins will prompt refiners to increase gasoline production. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which signals energy demand may improve as the economy expands and, (2) the action by Barclays Capital to hike its US GDP estimate for 2010 to 3.6% from 3.5%, which may lead to an increase in fuel demand.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) COMS-3Com Corp. (BEST earnings consensus ($0.10), OSTK-Overstock.com (0.47), PERY-Perry Ellis International (0.59), GASS-StealthGas (0.19), RXII-RXi Pharmaceuticals (-0.25).

Global Financial Calendar

Friday 3/19/2010
United States
1150 ETFormer Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks on the financial crisis to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity.
Japan
0030 ETJan Japan all-industry activity index expected +1.5% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m.
Germany
0300 ETFeb German producer prices expected +0.1% m/m and -2.8% y/y, Jan +0.8% m/m and -3.4% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0330 ETECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and EU Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier speak at a conference in Brussels.
France
0345 ETRevised Q4 French wages expected no change at +0.2% q/q.
Canada
0700 ETFeb Canadian CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
0700 ETFeb Bank of Canada core CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +!.6% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
0830 ETJan Canadian retail sales expected +0.5%, Dec +0.4% and +0.4% less autos.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET)LastChg%chgUpdated
US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (M0)1161.600.300.03%07:12:24
DJIA (CBOT) (M0)1072030.03%07:12:04
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 502625.3111.120.43%07:08:00
London UK FTSE Index5684.2341.610.74%07:08:00
German Dax Index6029.5217.210.29%07:08:04
French CAC 40 Index3956.7918.610.47%07:08:00
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index10825810.75%02:29:01
Hong Kong Hang Seng21371400.19%04:01:30
China CSI 300 Index3294260.81%03:01:25
Taiwan TAIEX Index7898120.15%01:46:00
Australian S&P 2004872.29.10.19%01:38:46
Singapore Str. Times2915.71.760.06%05:10:02
South Korea KOSPI 200220.481.460.67%05:03:27
Bombay Sensex 301757858.970.34%06:29:59
Karachi KSE-100 1000800.00%07:02:53
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(M0)117.0400.0100.03%07:12:31
Cash 10yr T-note Price99.2050.0200.06%07:21:31
Cash 10yr T-note Yield3.668-0.008-0.21%07:21
5yr T-note (CBT)(M0)115.0950.0050.01%07:11:11
Cash 5yr T-note Price99.2700.0100.03%07:22:31
Cash 5yr T-note Yield2.409-0.007-0.28%07:22
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(M0)117.250.020.05%07:10:38
Cash 30yr T-bond Price100.1950.0200.06%07:23:01
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield4.587-0.004-0.08%07:22
Eurodollars (CME)(M0)99.600-0.005-0.01%07:08:00
Eurodollars (CME)(U0)99.435-0.005-0.01%07:10:07
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (M0)138.630.080.06%02:00:00
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(M0)99.6050.0000.00%07:06:11
Bunds (Eurex) (M0)123.160.080.06%07:08:01
Euribor (Eurex) (M0)99.270.000.01%06:29:04
UK Gilts (Liffe) (M0)115.210.250.22%07:08:03
Short Stlg (Liffe) (M0)99.280.000.00%07:06:28
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index80.490.270.33%07:13:03
US Dollar-Japanese Yen90.510.120.13%07:23:04
EuroFX-US Dollar1.3557-0.0051-0.51%07:23:04
US Dollar-Swiss Franc1.05830.00030.03%07:23:04
British Pound-US$1.5150-0.0094-0.94%07:23:04
US$-Canadian Dlr1.0110-0.0031-0.31%07:23:04
Yen (Globex) (M0)1.106-0.002-0.20%07:13:03
Euro FX (Globex) (M0)1.3563-0.0057-0.42%07:13:02
SwissFranc (Globex)(M0)0.9461-0.0005-0.05%07:12:47
British Pound(Glbx)(M0)1.5139-0.0105-0.69%07:13:00
Canadian$ (Globex)(M0)0.98860.00140.14%07:13:01
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (J0)1121.3-6.2-0.55%07:12:39
Silver (Comex) (K0)17.280-0.142-0.82%07:12:06
Copper (Comex) (K0)340.61.00.29%07:12:48
Crude Oil (Nymex) (J0)81.54-0.66-0.80%07:12:56
Gasoline (Nymex) (J0)228.4-1.69-0.73%07:11:06
Heating Oil(Nymex) (J0)210.15-1.76-0.83%07:11:56
NaturalGas(Nymex)(J0)4.1220.0370.91%07:12:50
Corn (CBOT) (K0)373.75-2.25-0.60%07:12:49
Soybeans (CBOT) (K0)960.000.500.05%07:12:48
Wheat (CBOT) (K0)487.25-2.00-0.41%07:07:11


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Barchart U.S. Morning Call is written by the experienced members of the Commodity Research Bureau and the Barchart Research Team.  Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) has been providing research to the financial and commodity community since 1934.  If you have any questions for our analysts, please contact us at support@crbtrader.com.

Sent every morning, "Morning Call" summarizes overnight global market news, along with a U.S. market forecast for the day ahead. It Includes upcoming earnings reports, a global financial calendar, and quote board overview of where the markets are standing.

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