MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY., MARCH 19, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
POSSIBLE CHANGE? It appears that the grains and gold may be trying to break away from the Dollar based on trading behavior. There has been more than one instance now where they have not responded to the Dollar. If this continues it should suggest the beginning of the end of this erratic behavior of so many markets.
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.
EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
YOU'RE MISSING SOMETHING! The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday. On alternate days I also publish a Trade Alert that gives suggested trades as well. To sign up for both and have the convenience of receiving all my information via email. visit my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/, register and submit. And you may want to request some of my free trading booklets too!
ESTABLISHING A TRADING ACCOUNT: I offer brokerage services and personal assistance for every level of trader. Open your account with me and deal directly with me - learn while you trade. Feel free to call or email me at any time without obligation. I welcome hearing from you!
TRADE ALERTS:
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day session only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
Sell May mini silver. Sell 17.250 stop. Protective stop 17.675. Potential projection 16.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a major key reversal top - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top last week.
3. The weekly chart is in a downtrend. The recent really appears to be the set up for a third wave down.
4. On the weekly chart, silver violated the uptrend formed since the Oct. 08 low in late January. It has been attempting to rally back over that trend line without success.
5. The daily chart formed a key reversal top on March 10.
6. On the daily chart, silver is at major resistance.
Sell June mini eurocurrency. Sell 135.750 stop. Protective sotp 138.230. Potential projection 130.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the fx sold off under the 20 day ma in January. It has not been able to rally over it since. That is negative.
2. On the monthly chart, the fx appears to be starting a second major wave down.
3. On the weekly chart, the fx is in resistance and has been selling off since.
4. On the daily chart, the fx violated and closed under the 20 day ma today. That is negative.
5. On the daily chart, the macd is at the same level that produced a huge sell-off in the fx in mid January.
6. On the daily chart, the fx is in a downtrend. The recent rally is equivalent to the same rally it had early this year prior to a second wave down. The current rally could be the set up for a third wave down.
Sell June canadian dollar. 98.49 stop. Protective stop 99.37. Potential projection 97.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts, the cd continues to be in resistance.
2. On the daily chart, the cd rallied up to the 99.00 resistance and stopped. It started to sell off from it today.
3. On the daily chart, the cd broke out of the huge range it has formed since last October. Normally a market will tend to go back and test a breakout. Today's sell off could be the start of that.
4. On the daily chart, the current wave up has exceeded projections - suggesting an over bought market.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell June 10 year notes. Sell 116.270 stop. Protective stop 117.180. Potential projection 115.200.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the notes violated the uptrend formed since the 2007 low four months ago. Attempts to rally back over it have failed.
2. On the weekly chart, the notes have traded under the 20 day ma for several weeks. Attempts to rally over it have failed.
3. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. On the daily chart, notes rallied up to the 117.150 resistance area and again failed to get over it.
5. The daily formed a key reversal top today.
6. A sell signal would push notes under the 20 day ma on the daily chart.
7. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
MAY COPPER: The inside day mentioned on Tuesday, triggered a buy. It has not had much follow through. It formed an inside day today. Again, because of the daily swings the risk to enter the market is too much. I still see this market as topping. Closed 339.55, down 2.25.
APRIL MINI GOLD: Both yesterday and today it held at the 20 day ma but the rally is stalling out. This market is acting very strange. The Dollar was down yesterday and the gold's rally fizzled out and it sold off. It should have rallied aggressively. Today the Dollar was strong and gold should have sold off. It doesn't and has attempted to rally all day - not really getting any where. In short, I suspect it is starting to separate from the Dollar. Based on the daily chart, this rally could follow through to 1180 - as I mentioned last time. But will it? This current rally should be following through better than it is. Closed 1127.50, up 3.30.
MAY MINI SILVER: For the sixth time it is failing at the 17.500 resistance. When it tried it before and could not do it, it backed off (which is normal) and tried from a lower number. Again it cannot get over it. I see it selling off. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 17.422, down .101.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL: After triggering a sell on Monday and then rallying for two days straight, the sell signal is still intact. It also continues to be stopped by 83.00 resistance area. I still see this market selling off. Closed 82.20, down .73.
JUN MINI JAPANESE YEN: It formed a huge outside day today. The 20 day ma continues to plague this market. It just cannot hold over that average. This market has a lot of negatives. It needs to get under 110.00. Closed 110.80, down 14.
JUN SWISS FRANC: It has shown considerable strength against but has not been able to rally over 95.00 for three days in a row. It closed above it yesterday but could not hold. The last time it had a rally like this and the macd was in the same over bought area, the swiss topped and formed another huge wave down. Just watching. Closed 94.66, down 39.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: Its lack of follow through yesterday when it broke out to the downside was of concern. Today it was right back over 80.000 and holding. Not to make it simple, the one thing that stopped it was the 20 day ma. Bottom line this market needs to get over 81.000 and hold to rally further. This is still a toss up. Just watching. Closed 80.440, up .590.
JUN MINI EUROCURRENCY: The action today was horrible for lack of a better term. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 136.20, down 134.
JUN CANADIAN DOLLAR: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 98.72, down .40.
JUN 10 YR. NOTES: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 117.030, down .085.
JUN BONDS: They have attempted to rally over the 118.00 resistance and did so today. They reached 118.12. But that was it. They sold off and formed a key reversal top. Just watching. Closed 117.23, down .06.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
