MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY., MARCH 19, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
POSSIBLE CHANGE: It appears that the grains and gold may be trying to break away from the Dollar based on trading behavior. There has been more than one instance now where they have not responded to the Dollar. If this continues it should suggest the beginning of the end of this erratic behavior of so many markets.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day session only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
Sell May cotton. Sell 80.45 stop. Protective stop 82.51. Potential projection 75.00. (Also consider far out put options - call me for detail).
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, cotton is forming a preliminary key reversal top.
2. On the monthly chart, cotton seasonally sells off this time of year.
3. On both the monthly and weekly charts the macd shows over bought and is beginning to turn down.
4. On the daily chart, the current wave up exceeded projections - suggesting an over bought market.
5. On the daily chart, cotton is forming a 1, 2, 3 top formation.
6. On the daily chart, a sell would push cotton under the 20 day ma.
7. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
GRAIN COMMENTS: It is interesting to note that the grains are trying to separate form the Dollar. With the Dollar as strong as it was today, all the grains should have sold off a lot. They sold off initially but held and most ended the day higher. This is very unusual but, hopefully, a first sign that this Dollar fixation by the other markets is finally starting to come to a close. This is a very good sign - assuming they continue to do so!
MAY CORN: It rallied towards the close and reached the 20 day ma (376). That stopped the advanced. If it rallies over it, the next resistance level is 380. Just watching. Closed 376, up 2.
MAY WHEAT: It rallied up to the 20 day ma (498) yesterday. Today it sold off down to 484 1/2. Bottom line with wheat is that it needs to get over and close above 500. Part of the problem is that the 20 day ma intersects at that same level - making it a double resistance area. Just watching. Closed 489 1/4, down 6 3/4.
MAY BEANS: It is the moment of truth for the beans so to speak. In less than two weeks this is the fourth time they are pushing up against 960. If they get over that level, they most likely will try for 1000. I suspect they will do it - even though their close was not too impressive. Closed 959 1/2, up 1/2.
MAY MEAL: Seasonally it rallies this time of year and it is holding true to form. It rallied over the 20 day ma yesterday and the 265 resistance I mentioned in my last Update. It closed over the 270 resistance today - even if just barely. It will be up against its downtrend line soon (around 273). Just watching. Closed 269.90, up 2.50.
MAY BEAN OIL: Stops were reached yesterday. It then sold off today. Today's low 39.03. I still see this market selling off further. Just watching. Closed 39.25, down 58.
Position: Short 38.98 (3.15). Exit 39.70 (3.17). Loss $432.
MEAT COMMENTS:
JUNE HOGS: They held at the 80.00 support area on Tuesday. Today's high 83.00 which is a new contract high. The long term charts are not showing any thing new yet. They are still in resistance long term. Just watching. Closed 82.92, up 1.90.
APRIL CATTLE: In my last report I pointed out that the next resistance was around 97.00. They rallied over that today. The next minor resistance is around 99.30. Again, there is the potential to 105.00 long term and it appears they are not wasting any time trying to get there. My one concern remains that they have not tested that breakout from under 90.00. Closed 97.52, up 1.37.
SOFTS:
MAY COTTON: I tried to short it today. It rallied instead and formed an outside day. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 82.21, up 1.04.
MAY ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a sell yesterday and has been following through. Today's low 141.90. Move stops from 152.00 down to 148.35. Closed 144.10, down 4.40.
Position: Short 147.50 (3.17).
Projection: 135.00.
MAY COFFEE: Last time I mentioned that it needed to close over 135.00 for an extended rally. Considering the huge move today from 132.65 up to 136.80, I would not be surprised if it sold off tomorrow to retrace some. Either way, today's action was positive. Irrespective, on the daily chart it is still in a downtrend and this could be a set up for another wave down. What would negate the downtrend would be a close of 137.50. Having closed over 135.00 increases that possibility so we'll see. Closed 135.55, up 1.95.
MAY COCOA: Stops at 29.23 were reached yesterday. It rallied over the 20 day ma and rallied to 29.63 today. It did not hold and cocoa sold off to close right on the 20 day ma. Today's action was not very positive. It is still in a downtrend and it would have to do more that what it has in terms of a rally to negate that downtrend. Closed 28.93, down 12.
Position: Short 28.22 (3.16). Exit 29.23 (3.17). Loss $1011.
Projection: 26.00.
MAY SUGAR: It barely formed a key reversal bottom yesterday. It continued to rally today and is trying to get over the 19.00 resistance. This market is a bit overdue for a good rally but it should be only to set up to short. A rally to 21.00 would be a good area to short again - assuming it can get there. The rallies to date have been pretty pathetic. Closed 19.03, up .70.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
