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Morning Watch, March 18


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Bulls not ready to give up control with stocks rising following economic data. Many prior bulls are starting to switch camps given the ability of the bulls to break through resistance. However, volumes have not been part of the move, which is a concern. Nonetheless, stocks do tend to climb the "wall of worry" and this definitely has been the case this past month. Many traders joined the party when the S&P 500 (SPX) broke 1,500, so this would be an area to watch for a selling point if broken to the downside.

Jobless claims for the week ending March 13 fell by 5,000 to a level of 457,000, roughly in line with expectations. This puts the four-week moving average higher by 5,000 to 475,000. Unfortunately, jobless claims have not shown the improvement traders would like to see to support payrolls growth. However, the lack of jobs growth has not stopped traders from buying stocks.

Consumer prices for February supported the view that inflation is not a concern at the moment. Prices were flat overall and up just 0.1 percent at the core. The year on year rate for the headline figure sits just above 2 percent with the core year on year rate up 1.5 percent. This data, along with the PPI on Wednesday, allow the Fed to keep rates low for "an extended period of time."

In earnings news, Nike (NKE) easily surpassed earnings estimates on a 6.6 percent rise in revenues. Earnings per share came in at $1.01, 12-cents above expectations. The fact that future orders are up 9 percent compared with the year ago period has also been a positive for the stock. NKE shares are up nearly 5 percent in early trading, which puts it at a new 52-week high above $74.

FedEx (FDX) isn't seeing the same strength following its quarterly report. FDX shares are down 1.25 percent in early trading at $88.50. The package delivery company beat earnings by 4-cents a share and saw revenues come in above estimates. FDX provided inline guidance for the quarter and year, but traders have taken a "sell the news" mentality given the move from $75 to $90 in the past six weeks.

There still are two economic reports on tap this morning with data on leading indicators and the Philly Fed Survey due out at 10:00 AM ET. This data isn't likely to have a huge impact on trading unless they vary sharply from estimates. Leading indicators are expected to rise 0.2 percent with the Philly Fed index set to rise slightly to 18.0.

Jody Osborne
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site


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