- Global stocks are higher with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index up +1.00% at a 1-3/4 month high and June S&Ps up +3.80 points at a 17-1/2 month high. Commodity prices soared with gold rallying to a 1-week high as the dollar index tumbled to a 1-1/4 month low. Feb UK jobless claims unexpectedly fell -32,300, the biggest decline since 1997, and a sign that the economic recovery is strengthening. UniCredit SpA jumped 4.7% after Italy's biggest bank reported Q4 net income of 371 million euros ($511 million), beating analysts' estimates of a 26 million-euro loss. Inditex SA gained 3.4% after the world's largest clothing retailer reported Q4 net income of 483 million euros, well ahead of analysts' estimates of 429.9 million euros. Limiting gains in European stocks was the drop in Jan Euro-Zone construction output by -2.2% m/m, the biggest decline in over a year, while Q4 Euro-Zone labor costs rose +2.2% y/y, the smallest increase in 4 years, which suggests that European consumer spending may slow as wage growth weakens.
- The Asian markets today closed higher with Japan up +1.17%, Hong Kong +1.72%, China +2.18%, Taiwan +1.98%, Australia +1.17%, Singapore +0.79%, outh Korea +2.34%, India +0.61%. Japan's Nikkei stock index climbed to a 1-3/4 month high after the BOJ doubled its lending program by increasing the three-month loan facility lending program to 20 trillion yen ($222 billion) from 10 trillion yen in an effort to combat deflation that's hindering the economic recovery. Asian technology stocks closed higher after Intel's release of a new product stoked optimism demand for chips are improving. In a quarterly report released today in Beijing, the World Bank warned that China's "massive monetary stimulus" risks triggering large asset-price increases, a housing bubble, and bad debts from the financing of local-government projects. The World Bank raised its economic forecast for Chinese growth this year to 9.5% from a 9.0% estimate in Jan and said that the country should raise interest rates to help contain the risk of a property bubble and allow a stronger yuan to help dampen inflation expectations.
- June S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.80 points at a new 17-1/2 month high. The US stock market yesterday moved higher throughout the day and finished on its high (Dow Jones +0.41%, S&P 500 +0.78%, Nasdaq Composite +0.67%). The S&P 500 rose to a 17-1/2 month high, the Nasdaq rallied to a 1-1/2 year high and the Dow Jones climbed to a 1-3/4 month high. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks as concerns eased over Greece's sovereign debt after Standard & Poor's removed Greece from its "credit watch negative," meaning it is no longer considering a downgrade of Greece's debt, (2) the statement from Moody's Investors Service that said the US is unlikely to lose its top Aaa credit rating, (3) slack inflation pressures after Feb import prices were weaker than expected (-0.3% m/m and +11.2% y/y versus expectations of -0.2% and +11.3% y/y), (4) a rally in raw material and energy producers after a weaker dollar prompted gains in most commodity prices, and (5) strength in financial stocks after the Fed's post-FOMC statement that said interest rates will remain "exceptionally low" for an "extended period."
- Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the joint statement from three Obama administration officials that said US unemployment is likely to "remain elevated for an extended period," and that unemployment may even rise "slightly" over the next few months as discouraged workers start job-hunting again, and (2) the Fed's post-FOMC statement that said housing starts are "flat at a depressed level" and that employers "remain reluctant to add to payrolls," which indicates the economic recovery may have trouble sustaining momentum as the housing crisis lingers and the labor market remains weak.
- Autodesk (ADSK) rose 2.6% in pre-market trading after the company was added to the "conviction buy" list at Goldman Sachs.
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading unchanged. T-note prices yesterday moved higher and settled up +16 ticks at 1-week high of 117-115. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 3.644%. Bullish factors included (1) slack inflation pressures after Feb import prices were weaker than expected (-0.3% m/m and +11.2% y/y versus expectations of -0.2% and +11.3% y/y), (2) the statement from Moody's Investors Service that said the US is unlikely to lose its top Aaa credit rating, (3) the joint statement from three Obama administration officials that said US unemployment is likely to "remain elevated for an extended period," and that unemployment may even rise "slightly" over the next few months as discouraged workers start job-hunting again, and (4) the Fed's post-FOMC statement that said interest rates will remain "exceptionally low" for an "extended period." Bearish factors yesterday included (1) a decrease in the safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rallied to a 17-1/2 month high, along with a surge in Greek bonds after Standard & Poor's said it was no longer planning an imminent downgrade of Greece's debt, and (2) the Fed's post-FOMC statement that reaffirmed it will end its asset-purchase program at the end of this month.
- The dollar index this morning is lower and at a 1-1/4 month low with the dollar/yen +0.19 yen and the euro/dollar +0.23 cents. The dollar index yesterday slumped to a 1-month low and finished on its low. Bearish factors yesterday included (1) the Fed's post-FOMC statement that said interest rates will remain "exceptionally low" for an "extended period," (2) strength in the euro after the Mar German ZEW economic sentiment fell less than expected, (3) a decrease in the safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 rallied to a 17-1/2 month high along with the action by Standard & Poor's to remove Greece from its "credit watch negative," meaning it is no longer considering a downgrade of Greece's debt, (4) the prediction from UBS AG that the euro may gain to above $1.40 versus the dollar within weeks as the European Union's pledge to help Greece lures investors back into euro assets, and (5) the recommendation from JPMorgan Chase for investors to buy the euro versus the dollar and their prediction that the euro is about 4% to 5% too cheap versus the dollar and may gain to $1.42 in the "short term" on diminished concerns that any European countries will default. Bullish factors included (1) the Fed's post-FOMC statement that reaffirmed the end of its asset-purchase program at the end of this month, and (2) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner who said "there's no way" the US government will lose its Aaa credit rating as he pushed for Congress to summon the "political will" to help lower a record budget deficit.
- April crude oil prices this morning are up +63 cents and Apr gasoline is +2.00 cents. Apr crude oil yesterday rallied and closed up +$1.90 per barrel. Apr gasoline closed up +5.22 cents per gallon. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-month low, (2) comments from Qatar's Energy Minister that the oil market is "well supplied" and oil prices are "very comfortable," along with comments from the UAE oil minister that oil prices at $70 to $80 a barrel is "reasonable and acceptable," which indicates OPEC will not increase production quotas at its meeting on Wed, and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 Index to a 17-1/2 month high, which boosts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) comments from Algeria's oil minister that OPEC has a "50-50 chance" of raising its production quotas at its September meeting as prices approach $85 a barrel, and (2) prospects that weekly crude oil supplies increased for a seventh week when the DOE releases weekly inventory data on Wed. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for crude oil supplies to rise +1.05 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to fall -750,000 bbl, distillate inventories to drop -1.35 million bbl and the refinery capacity rate to increase +0.05 points to 80.8%
Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) NKE-Nike (BEST earnings consensus ($0.89), GES-Guess? (0.82), IHS-IHS Inc. (0.62), CLC-Clarcor (0.31), ATU-Actuant (0.16), STRI-STR Holdings (0.20), TNP-Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (-0.04).
Global Financial Calendar
| Wednesday 3/17/2010 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications for the week ended Mar 12, previous +0.5% with purchase mortgage sub-index +5.7% and refinancing sub-index -1.5%. |
| 0830 ET | Feb PPI expected -0.2% m/m and +4.9% y/y, Jan +1.4% m/m and +4.6% y/y. Feb PPI ex food and energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.0% y/y. |
| 1400 ET | Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker testify at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Examining the Link Between Fed Bank Supervision and Monetary Policy." |
| 1630 ET | Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks as part of a panel at a Dallas Fed conference on "Learning from Each Other in Crisis Response." |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0530 ET | Minutes of the Mar 4 BOE monetary policy meeting. |
| 0530 ET | Feb UK jobless claims change expected +6,000, Jan +23,500. Feb claimant count rate expected 5.0%, Jan 5.0%. |
| 0530 ET | Jan UK avg weekly earnings including bonus expected +1.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +0.8% 3-mo/year-over-year. Jan avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.3% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +1.2% 3-mo/year-over-year. |
| 0530 ET | Jan UK ILO unemployment rate expected 7.9% (3-months), Dec 7.8% (3-months). |
| Euro-Zone | |
| 0600 ET | Jan Euro-Zone construction output, Dec +0.5% m/m and -3.1% y/y. |
| 0600 ET | Q4 Euro-Zone labour costs expected +2.8% y/y, Q3 +3.2% y/y. |
| 0610 ET | ECB Council member Axel Weber speaks on a panel discussion at the University of Cologne on "The Aftermath of the Crisis - A Newly Structured World." |
| 0700 ET | European Union releases deficit reports on 14 countries. |
| Canada | |
| 0830 ET | Jan Canadian wholesale sales, Dec +0.7% m/m. |
| Japan | |
| 1950 ET | Q1 Japan BSI business condition large all industry, Q4 -1.9%. Q1 BSI business condition large manufacturing, Q4 13.2%. |
Morning Quote Board
| Morning Quotes (ET) | Last | Chg | %chg | Updated |
| US Stock Futures | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P (Globex) (M0) | 1158.60 | 3.80 | 0.33% | 07:10:21 |
| DJIA (CBOT) (M0) | 10655 | 31 | 0.29% | 07:08:30 |
| European Stocks | ||||
| Europe DJ Stoxx 50 | 2616.13 | 25.79 | 1.00% | 07:05:45 |
| London UK FTSE Index | 5653.80 | 33.37 | 0.59% | 07:05:55 |
| German Dax Index | 6016.94 | 45.95 | 0.77% | 07:05:57 |
| French CAC 40 Index | 3963.22 | 24.27 | 0.62% | 07:05:45 |
| Asian-Pacific Stocks | ||||
| Japan Nikkei Index | 10847 | 125 | 1.17% | 02:29:01 |
| Hong Kong Hang Seng | 21384 | 362 | 1.72% | 04:01:30 |
| China CSI 300 Index | 3274 | 70 | 2.18% | 03:01:29 |
| Taiwan TAIEX Index | 7848 | 152 | 1.98% | 01:46:01 |
| Australian S&P 200 | 4853.2 | 56 | 1.17% | 01:34:45 |
| Singapore Str. Times | 2919.3 | 22.87 | 0.79% | 05:10:01 |
| South Korea KOSPI 200 | 220.28 | 5.03 | 2.34% | 05:03:27 |
| Bombay Sensex 30 | 17490 | 106.9 | 0.61% | 06:29:59 |
| Karachi KSE-100 | 9981 | -36 | -0.36% | 06:30:06 |
| US Interest Rates | ||||
| 10yr T-notes (CBT)(M0) | 117.115 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 07:10:39 |
| Cash 10yr T-note Price | 99.265 | 0.010 | 0.03% | 07:20:30 |
| Cash 10yr T-note Yield | 3.646 | -0.004 | -0.10% | 07:20 |
| 5yr T-note (CBT)(M0) | 115.185 | -0.015 | -0.04% | 07:10:54 |
| Cash 5yr T-note Price | 100.025 | -0.015 | -0.05% | 07:06:01 |
| Cash 5yr T-note Yield | 2.358 | 0.010 | 0.43% | 07:05 |
| 30-yr T-bond (CBT)(M0) | 117.25 | 0.04 | 0.11% | 07:10:26 |
| Cash 30yr T-bond Price | 100.235 | 0.040 | 0.12% | 07:16:01 |
| Cash 30yr T-bond Yield | 4.579 | -0.008 | -0.17% | 07:15 |
| Eurodollars (CME)(M0) | 99.640 | 0.005 | 0.01% | 07:10:20 |
| Eurodollars (CME)(U0) | 99.485 | 0.005 | 0.01% | 07:10:20 |
| Asian & European Rates | ||||
| 10-yr JGBs (TSE) (M0) | 138.84 | -0.12 | -0.09% | 02:00:00 |
| EuroyenTibor(SGX)(M0) | 99.600 | -0.030 | -0.03% | 07:05:09 |
| Bunds (Eurex) (M0) | 123.12 | 0.26 | 0.21% | 07:05:47 |
| Euribor (Eurex) (M0) | 99.28 | 0.02 | 0.02% | 07:04:52 |
| UK Gilts (Liffe) (M0) | 114.74 | 0.16 | 0.14% | 07:05:41 |
| Short Stlg (Liffe) (M0) | 99.28 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 07:05:29 |
| Forex | ||||
| U.S. Dollar Index | 79.58 | -0.09 | -0.11% | 07:10:45 |
| US Dollar-Japanese Yen | 90.50 | 0.19 | 0.21% | 07:20:57 |
| EuroFX-US Dollar | 1.3789 | 0.0023 | 0.23% | 07:20:57 |
| US Dollar-Swiss Franc | 1.0522 | -0.0025 | -0.25% | 07:20:57 |
| British Pound-US$ | 1.5347 | 0.0104 | 1.04% | 07:20:57 |
| US$-Canadian Dlr | 1.0120 | -0.0021 | -0.21% | 07:20:57 |
| Yen (Globex) (M0) | 1.1053 | -0.0032 | -0.32% | 07:10:09 |
| Euro FX (Globex) (M0) | 1.3787 | 0.003 | 0.22% | 07:10:57 |
| SwissFranc (Globex)(M0) | 0.9508 | 0.0025 | 0.26% | 07:10:38 |
| British Pound(Glbx)(M0) | 1.5332 | 0.0108 | 0.71% | 07:10:47 |
| Canadian$ (Globex)(M0) | 0.9886 | 0.0031 | 0.31% | 07:10:48 |
| Commodities | ||||
| Gold (Comex) (J0) | 1131.8 | 9.3 | 0.83% | 07:10:53 |
| Silver (Comex) (K0) | 17.565 | 0.211 | 1.22% | 07:10:39 |
| Copper (Comex) (K0) | 341.5 | 5.0 | 1.47% | 07:10:57 |
| Crude Oil (Nymex) (J0) | 82.33 | 0.63 | 0.77% | 07:10:54 |
| Gasoline (Nymex) (J0) | 229.5 | 2.00 | 0.88% | 07:05:06 |
| Heating Oil(Nymex) (J0) | 212.71 | 1.28 | 0.61% | 07:10:04 |
| NaturalGas(Nymex)(J0) | 4.336 | -0.011 | -0.25% | 07:10:35 |
| Corn (CBOT) (K0) | 368.25 | 1.50 | 0.41% | 07:10:24 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) (K0) | 947.75 | 2.75 | 0.29% | 07:10:36 |
| Wheat (CBOT) (K0) | 487.50 | 0.50 | 0.10% | 07:06:18 |









