Hog & Corn Comments – 03/16/10 Fund buying supports hog market today.
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CORN – May ‘10 Electronic
Open – $3.64 3/4, High – $3.68 3/4, Low – $3.64 3/4, Close – $3.66 3/4 Up $.03 1/2
Thoughts – Long Term (into June ‘10) – Sideways/Lower
May ‘10: The corn market was stronger early today then leveled off a bit going into the close but still had a positive trade session. $3.59 is still a number that I will watch closely in the May contract as it will decide if we make another leg lower or rally from here. I think it will be tough for corn to sink to a new low as we get into the planting season. There should be some weather rally/scare this spring with all of the wet areas around the countryside.
Profits are still offered by the hog, corn and meal markets so if your profits look good you may want to think about locking those profits in or at minimum using an option strategy to limit risk. Things feel all warm and fuzzy right now because the market is where it is but remember how fast it can be taken away!
Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow and then fade as the session progresses. If you were going to lock in May corn for some reason tomorrow I would wait until later in the day to do so.
May ‘10 Corn – Support/Resistance for 03-17-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.74 3/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.70 3/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.68 3/4
Today’s close: $3.66 3/4
(S1) Support 1: $3.64 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.62 3/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.58 3/4
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MEAL – May ‘10 Electronic
Open – $259.00, High – $263.40, Low – $258.50, Close – $261.50 Up $3.90
Thoughts – Long Term (into June ‘10) – Sideways
May ‘10 meal: Meal continued to move higher today adding another $3.90 to yesterday's $6.00+ move for a nice little rally. The weekly chart looks even better with today's close and if we sustain trade above $254.00 we could see this market rebound even more in the coming weeks. If you are thinking about locking in meal, now may be a good time to lock in what you will need through the planting season. I can't stress enough how fast profits go away when we least expect it so be business minded when making your decisions.
Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.
May ‘10 Meal – Support/Resistance for 03-17-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $270.90
(R2) Resistance 2: $266.00
(R1) Resistance 1: $263.80
Today’s close: $261.50
(S1) Support 1: $258.90
(S2) Support 2: $256.20
(S3) Support 3: $251.30
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HOGS – Apr ‘10 GLOBEX
Open – $71.20, High – $72.20, Low – $71.00, Close – $71.75 Down $.05
Thoughts – Long Term (into April) – Neutral/Lower
Hog margins continue to show some profit for the coming year. If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.
Apr‘10 hogs: Not much has changed from my comments yesterday, we still have a near double top and the daily chart is in a downward cycle. The dollar dropped off rather hard today but managed to stay above 79.55 which we will need to pay close attention to this Friday. If the Dollar Index closes Friday below 79.55 we could see more downside next week. The one thing that I noticed about today's action is that we rejected lower prices and closed in our upper range for the day. The bar that was left on the chart today would suggest buy stops at 72.35 or so for tomorrow's trade.
Keep an eye on profits and don't let them slip away, make sure you have a plan in place to act fast if you should need to. I am not bullish the hog market, however, the market doesn't care what I think and it will do what it wants to, the funds proved this today. One thing we have to remember about funds and markets moving higher is that it is an opportunity for us to take action and say thank you very much Mr. Investor.
One thing we all need to think about is the now not what has been. If we kick ourselves for decision we made that went wrong we will never make a decision again because we are afraid of being "wrong". If you lock in profits you are not wrong anything, you may miss opportunities but you will still be moving ahead with the profits you have. Make decisions based on your situation today not on what you did right or wrong in the past. Learn from it but don't dwell on it!
Bottom line: I’m looking for an early high tomorrow.
Apr ‘10 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 03-17-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $74.05
(R2) Resistance 2: $72.825
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.30
Today’s close: $71.75
(S1) Support 1: $71.10
(S2) Support 2: $70.45
(S3) Support 3: $69.25
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