MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., MARCH 17, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
GENERAL COMMENT: The Dollar finally closed under 80.000 today for the first time since early February. The close was by only .005 ticks which is pretty pathetic. The big question is whether there will be follow through or not. That is anyone's guess based on the close. Observing the other currencies, they are at critical points too. The swiss rallied to the 95.00 resistance and stopped. The eurocurency to 138.000. The aussie to 91.00. The canadian is the only that is through resistance.
What does all of this mean? If the Dollar follows through in the potential sell-off, the swiss , eurocurrency and aussie should rally over their resistances with the potential of good follow through. If the Dollar rallies tomorrow back over 80,000, you guessed it, those same currencies will, most likely, drop like a rock.
Just looking at those markets technically, in a normal trading climate, I would see the Dollar selling off and the others having good rallies. But you cannot trust it. Why? We are not in a normal trading climate. The Dollar is calling the shots and it doesn't know what it wants to do!
The same goes for the metals. In a normal trading climate, they look like they should have a really good rally. Well, they set up the same potential last month but could not follow through (as great as the charts looked) because the Dollar aborted that. Just this week the metals appeared to be finally breaking away from the Dollar but that lasted only one day. As the saying goes, "something is better than nothing." Hopefully that is the first sign that those markets being lead by the nose by the Dollar is finally coming to an end. As for tomorrow? Do you have an extra coin in your pocket?
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Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day session only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
METALS COMMENTS:
MAY COPPER: It has been selling off but continues to hold around 330.00. Today was an inside day. I would suggest trying to short it but the risk required is too much. Closed 336.50, up 5.00.
APRIL MINI GOLD: I have attempted to short it. It has rallied instead as it continues to hold at the 1100.00 support. It rallied to 1129.30 today and is over the 20 day ma. If this rally can follow through, gold's projection is 1160. The previous rally should have followed through to 1180 but sold off instead. This is, unfortunately, what you are dealing with. Closed 1122.50, up 17.10.
MAY MINI SILVER: It rallied today as well and reached 17.495. It has continued to have problems at 17.500. It will be interesting to see if it can get over that stumbling block and follow through this time. If so, it should reach 18.000. Closed 17.354, up .246.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL: It triggered a buy last Friday. The stop was reached the same day when it formed an outside day. That formation triggered a sell yesterday. There was initial follow through but that was short lived. It rallied today and reached 82.04. Is this market confused or what? Just watching. Closed 81.70, up 1.90.
Position: Long 82.50 (3.12). Exit 81.29 (3.12). Loss $605.
JUN MINI JAPANESE YEN: It triggered a sell last Friday. The stop was reached today when it rallied to 111.21. Just watching. Closed 110.85, up .25.
Position: Short 110.00 (3.12). Exit 110.99 (3.16). Loss $618.75.
JUN SWISS FRANC: An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today. It rallied to the 95.00 resistance level. Closed 94.83, up .61.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: Today's low was 79.850. It continues to struggle to hold above the 80.000 support level. Actually it would be healthy for this market to sell off and be done with it. I don't see the sell-off as being extensive at this point. There is good support at 79.000. Closed 79.995, down .505.
JUN MINI EUROCURRENCY: It is responding to the weak Dollar but is not going to do much unless it can close over 138.000 and hold. That remains to be seen. Just watching. Closed 137.57, up .84.
JUN CANADIAN DOLLAR: Stops on the previous short position were reached on Friday. I tried to short it again today. It rallied instead. Today's high, 98.67. Long term it continues to push deep into heavy resistance. Closed 98.55, up .53.
Position: Short 96.79 (3.11). Exit 97.89 (3.12). Loss $1100.
JUN 10 YR. NOTES: They triggered a buy today and rallied to 117.145. If there is follow through, they should try for 118.000. Just watching. Closed 117.115, up .160.
JUN BONDS: Stops on the previous short position were reached on Friday. They rallied today with a high at 117.24. They most likely will try for 118.00. Just watching. Closed 117.21, up .24.
Position: Short 116.01 (3.10). Exit 116.29 (3.12). Loss $875.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
