MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., MARCH 17, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

GENERAL COMMENT:  The Dollar finally closed under 80.000 today for the first time since early February.  The close was by only .005 ticks which is pretty pathetic.  The big question is whether there will be follow through or not.  That is anyone's guess based on the close.  Observing the other currencies, they are at critical points too.  The swiss rallied to the 95.00 resistance and stopped.  The eurocurency to 138.000.  The aussie to 91.00.  The canadian is the only that is through resistance. 

What does all of this mean?  If the Dollar follows through in the potential sell-off, the swiss , eurocurrency and aussie should rally over their resistances with the potential of good follow through.  If the Dollar rallies tomorrow back over 80,000, you guessed it, those same currencies will, most likely, drop like a rock.  

Just looking at those markets technically, in a normal trading climate, I would see the Dollar selling off and the others having good rallies.  But you cannot trust it.  Why?  We are not in a normal trading climate.  The Dollar is calling the shots and it doesn't know what it wants to do! 

The same goes for the metals.  In a normal trading climate, they look like they should have a really good rally.  Well, they set up the same potential last month but could not follow through (as great as the charts looked) because the Dollar aborted that.  Just this week the metals appeared to be finally breaking away from the Dollar but that lasted only one day.  As the saying goes, "something is better than nothing."  Hopefully that is the first sign that those markets being lead by the nose by the Dollar is finally coming to an end.  As for tomorrow?  Do you have an extra coin in your pocket?

The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.

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TRADE ALERTS: 

Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1.  They are placed for the day session only.
2.  They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis.  That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3.  All orders are good for that day only.

Sell May orange juice.  Sell 147.55 stop.  Protective stop 152.00.  Potential projection 135.00
Reasons for the Trade:
1.   On the monthly chart oj continues to struggle at the 150.00 resistance area.  In December 2007 and January 2008, it attempted to get over this area.  It got to152.00 and failed.  This time it rallied to 153.00 and is now selling off from that price level.
2.  On the daily chart, oj has been consolidating.  It is at the high end of that trading range - which is resistance.
3.  The recent rally that peaked on March 8, formed a key reversal top on the daily chart.
4.  Its seasonal tendency to sell off this time of year has yet to occur.
5.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short may bean oil from 40.43 down to 39.69.

GRAIN COMMENTS:  There is conflict between the daily charts on the grains and the longer term charts.  The daily charts are more constructive while the long term charts point to lower prices.  That suggests to me that near term there may be further rally but it should be an opportunity to eventually short.

MAY CORN:  It has persisted in having a very narrow range for four days now.  It triggered a buy today from an inside day formed yesterday.  The follow through has not been much.  If it can get over 370 it may try for 375.  For any major rally to develop, it has to get over 380.  Closed 366 3/4, up 3 1/2.
Position:  Short 374 1/4 (3.8).  Exit 367 (3.12).  Profit $362.50.
Projection:  325.  

MAY WHEAT:  It triggered a buy today from an outside day formed yesterday.  It has been attempting to hold at the 475 support.  This held the market last October.  Longer term, neither the weekly or monthly charts are too supportive.  It really needs to get over 500 to change that scenario.  Closed 487, up 7 3/4.

MAY BEANS:  They are attempting to hold around the 925 area.  Again, that is previous support going back to last year.  Near term that could push them to 975.  The hurtle right now is getting over 950.  Closed 945, up 15. 

MAY MEAL:  Its recent sell-off stopped in the middle of nowhere last week (low 250 area).  It has rallied since.  It needs to get over 265.  It is close to that but would there be follow through if it could close over that support?  You don't know.  Meal is clearly in a downtrend.  Long term it has violated the uptrend formed since the October 2006 low.  It did so last month.  Its next support is down at 240. Just watching.  Closed 261.50, up 3.90.

MAY BEAN OIL:  It triggered a sell yesterday and sold off to 38.75.  That was short lived.  It rallied today and formed an inside day.  Move stops from 40.43 down to 39.69.  Closed 39.37, up .62.
Position:  Short 38.98 (3.15).
Projection:  37.25.

MEAT COMMENTS:

JUNE HOGS:  I keep attempting to short them.  The price is never reached as they persist in holding 80.00 support.  As of today they are back over the 20 day ma.  That is supportive.  They also formed an outside day.  Just watching.  Closed 81.10, up .52.

APRIL CATTLE:  Another new high today at 95.92 and they then formed a key reversal top.  It is not a very aggressive one, unfortunately.  Long term they are over 95.00. That was resistance.  From here the next resistance point is 97.00.  Bear in mind and as I mentioned before, the base that cattle are coming out of on the weekly chart has a potential projection up to the Sept. 2008 high area around 105.00.  However, a market normally tests a breakout.  Cattle have not tested their breakout from that base yet.  Closed 95.47, down .17.

SOFTS:

MAY COTTON:  Is it a coincidence that cotton appears to be starting a major sell-off in the same month that it did in 2008?  It also pulled the same thing in 2004.  March seems to be trouble for cotton.  If it follows through, it easily has the potential to reach 45 to 50.   In spite of that, it has been rallying the last three days.   This rally could be a test of the contract high on the daily chart.  Obviously it will either fail or take it out.  Therefore, the outcome of this rally should tell us a lot.  This could be a very good option play in terms of puts.   Closed 81.84, up 1.08.

MAY ORANGE JUICE:  This market looks worn out.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 150.40, down 1.25.

MAY COFFEE:   It triggered a sell yesterday and tested the 130.00 support again.  It has an allergic reaction to 130.00 and, as usual, rallying off that price level.  Today's high 133.40.  It is now back over the 20 day ma on the daily chart.  This could produce more follow through.  The key is 135.00 on the daily chart.  It needs to close over that for an extended rally.  Closed 132.75, up 1.70.

MAY COCOA:  It triggered a sell today.  It did so last night when it sold off to 27.45.  It reached the sell price again during the day session.  Keep stops at 29.23.  Closed 28.48, down 18.
Position:  Short 28.22 (3.16).
Projection:  26.00.

MAY SUGAR:  It triggered a sell today with follow through.  I grabbed the profit at 18.30.   It sold off to 18.02.  Closed 18.24, down 1.15.
Position:  Short 18.78 (3.16).  Exit 18.30 (3.16).  Profit $537.60.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. 

Actual results may vary.