Retail sales data suggests shopping is more fashionable than expected but after ten straight, investors are ringing their own register. As of 10:45 ET the SP-500 (SPY) is off 0.15% and well-removed from fresh higher highs or the more precarious ill-formed double top still in contention.
"Early Show" incentive to "Buy, Buy, Buy!" for an eleventh straight session was negotiated in the wee hours of the premarket following a bullish-sounding report from across-the-pond. European industrial production rose a sharper-than-expected 1.70% during January.
The data has had the effect of sending a bid in the beleaguered Euro, supporting overseas bourses and applying some profit-taking pressure in the US Dollar (UUP). The net action also inspired some early relative strength nuzzling by bulls into the green-shoots sensitive commodity complex; which intraday isn't showing that same level of affection.
Intraday, the UUP is off a fairly stiff 0.42% but Comex Gold (GLD), the US Oil Fund (USO) and Miners (GDX) are currently showing a bit more restraint with fractional gains just above the unchanged marker.
For its part, the somewhat defiant refusal by oil to find a bid is interesting as the action lies counter to a bullish report this morning from the IEA which sees stronger demand in 2010. Leading for those still putting up the good cheerful fight, the steel sector (SLX) is up 1.10% but still nestled within the right side of its "V" shaped or more optimistic daily cup base.
Stateside, an advance or sneak better-than-expected peek reading on eventually-to-be confirmed retail sales data for February saw traders celebrate with buy-side vigor out-the-gate this morning. The report suggests consumers reached 0.3% deeper into their pockets versus bleaker forecasts calling for a stingy -0.2% drop on the heels of January's downwardly-revised increase of 0.1%.
Axing autos, which were mostly parked in snowdrifts and thoughts of extra digging responsibilities unsettling-consumers lifted sales an even more impressive 0.8% in beating Street views by seven-tenths of a percent.
Not as endearing and an apparent contradiction to consumers digging deep into something other than snowdrifts, sentiment out of Michigan for March came in below views of 74.0 with an actual reading of 72.5 while falling below February's less chilly 73.6.
The release on sentiment in conjunction with a disappointing flat miss of one-tenth of a percent in business inventories and downward revision for December's data has enabled bulls to pull the carpet out from Friday's early celebratory bid to fresh recovery highs. Intraday, "sell-e-brations" after ten straight days of gains and 11.00% since corrective lows, appear to be weighing in with a bit less effort than otherwise might be the case.
On other fronts brimming with bull, the CNBC's Fast Money show of appreciation for "Who's Next!" last night has received a sample taste with an ongoing three-way involving Agrium (AGU), CF Holdings (CF) and Terra Industries (TRA) finding closure.Agrium, a hostile suitor for CF Industries has terminated its bid, allowing the other to confirm its well-worn courting of Terra as a corporate marriage made in heaven.
The "I do" nod is worth $4.70B of which TRA shareholders will receive $37.15 in cash and 0.0953 shares of CF for every 1.0 share held. Intraday, CF is off 4.30% at 96.25, TRA shedding 1.45% to 46.24 and "flying solo" best man AGU, looking the smartest, up 8.00% at 72.10 and hitting fresh intermediate highs.
Finally, not all those fast money faces are happy ones just yet. Pete Najarian's "I'm Long Calls!" positioning due to rampant smart money speculation in Hologic (HOLX) are looking less a bit less inflated. I'm sure he covered, if we don't (and likely won't) hear otherwise.
Intraday, shares of HOLX are off 0.70 at 18.58. As for that sometimes accurate heat-seeking option action, Thursday's most active April 20 call has seen about 500 of the newly-interested 11,300 contracts exit the party. Following a "through the roof" near double in implieds to 70% and $1.40 closing price, the contract has shrink by 40% to $0.95 on slightly less enthusiastic but still "in play" implieds of 66%.
Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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