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Absolutely Astonishing
Friday, March 12, 2010
by Phil Flynn of PFGBEST
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Absolutely Astonishing
By Phil Flynn, PFGBEST Oil prices are on the rise again as the International Energy Agency is the latest forecaster to increase their expectations for China oil demand. Yet the IEA went far beyond just increasing demand expectations for China they said that the demand growth that we have seen so far is astonishing. The IEA beat all the other forecasters by predicting that world demand will increase by 70,000 barrels a day to 86.6 million barrels or close to 1.6 million barrels more than a year ago. Yet what have captured the imagination of the marketplace were their comments that Chinese demand surged by an "astonishing" 28 percent year-on-year in January. That led to the IEA astonishing forecast for a growth in China demand to increase by 130,000 barrels a day to 9 million barrels a day, representing an increase of 6.2 percent from 2009.
Of course at the same despite all of these rising demand expectations are China on an unsustainable path? First it was the Department of Energy, then it was the OPEC cartel and now it is the International Energy Agency. Yet this demand growth is not without risks both political and economic and the White House may be raising the stakes and the pressure on the Chinese to let some air out of this risky China bubble and adding to tensions.
China's economy is leading to a global recovery but also is adding to tension between China and the Obama administration. Yesterday the Obama administration promised a mini-cabinet to focus on imports. He also called on the Chinese to embrace a "market-oriented" exchange rate policy .President Obama also said he would start to enforce existing trade deals but what made the Chinese mad was that was the currency comment.
Long story short (due to computer issues) The Chinese bubble may the biggest threat to the global economic recovery.
Recent articles from this author
- Can You Cut Enough? - Friday, February 10, 2012
- Refineries Were Born To Run - Thursday, February 09, 2012
- A Better Future for Price Predictions - Wednesday, February 08, 2012
- Cuts, Gluts and Nuts - Tuesday, February 07, 2012
- It Will Be A Cold Day In... - Monday, February 06, 2012
About the author
Phil Flynn is Vice President, Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.PFGBEST.com). Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.
Through hundreds of media interviews, Phil Flynn and PFGBEST have become familiar names in living rooms and boardrooms worldwide. The world's print, broadcast and online media have come to rely on Phil's timely and animated forecasts and analysis.
Media highlights include: The President of the United States, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS, NBC's "Today Show" and "Nightly News with Tom Brokaw", CNBC, CNN/ CNNfn, FOX's "O'Reilly Factor", PBS's "The Newshour with Jim Lehrer" and "Nightly Business Report", MSNBC's "The News with Brian Williams", Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor's Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine and National Public Radio.
Phil's daily market analysis can be viewed at www.PFGBEST.com. He has been featured on MarketWatch.com, ino.com and futuresource.com.
Phil's commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
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