MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., MARCH 10, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.
EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day session only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
Sell June Canadian. Sell 96.83 stop. Protective stop 97.71. Potential projection 95.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts, the cd is in resistance.
2. On the monthly chart, the cd has formed two key reversal tops recently - one in Oct. and one in Jan. Neither has been negated.
3. On the weekly chart, the cd has reached the current price level twice before. Each time it has had a significant sell-off.
4. On the weekly chart, the uptrend formed since March 2009 was violated several weeks ago.
5. On the daily chart, the cd is at the high end of the huge range it has been stuck in since last October.
6. On the daily chart, the current wave up has met projections.
7. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell June bonds. Sell 116.01 stop. Protective stop 116.29. Potential projection 114.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, bonds have attempted to rally over the 119.00 resistance for three months without success. They have started to sell off from that level.
2. On the monthly chart, bonds appear to be starting a second wave down since the rally that peaked in October.
3. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. The weekly chart is triggering another sell signal this week.
5. On the weekly chart, bonds have been trading under the 20 day ma for some time. That is negative.
6. On the daily chart, the rally that peaked last week formed a double top at 118.02. Technically that suggests a trend change from up to down.
7. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
MAY COPPER: It is still attempting to get back over the 340.00 support on the daily chart. It just can't seem to sustain it. It churned around at this same level in January before it sold off to 282.90. A big part of the problem is that it is up against the very major 350.00 resistance when it attempts to rally. That is a real problem. The recent rally on the daily chart that peaked on March 1 formed a key reversal top and that is still intact. Just looking at the charts, I see a sell-off setting up. Closed 341.15, up .10.
APRIL MINI GOLD: It triggered a sell yesterday from an inside day formed on Friday. The sell was triggered when gold traded under 1127.50. It violated the 20 day ma today on the daily chart today but managed to rally back over it. Today's low 1108.20. Closed 1122.30, down 1.70.
MAY MINI SILVER: It triggered a sell this morning from yesterday's outside day. It has rallied since and reached 17.420. Keep stops at 17.540. Closed 17.338, up .066.
Position: Short 16.930 (3.9).
Projection: 16.000.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL: It finally got over the 80.000 level that it struggled at for some time on both the daily and long term charts. It now is facing the 82.000 problem level on the daily. That is resistance going back to last October. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top in January and that is still intact. Just watching. Closed 81.490, down .380.
JUN MINI JAPANESE YEN: Switching to June. First I'll finish up with the March trade. It triggered a sell last Friday. I lowered the stop last night and it was reached with a profit. The yen continued to rally today and the June made a high up at 111.64. It will reach resistance at 112.00. Closed 111.23, up .46.
Position: Short 111.95 (3.5). Exit 110.95 (3.9). Profit $600.
JUN SWISS FRANC: Switching to the June. It continues to consolidate in the same range between 92.00 up to 94.00. The most recent rally only made it to 93.72 yesterday before selling off to 92.63 today. It is making an effort to get over the 20 day ma and, as of the last week, has been more aggressive about it. It has even succeeded in closing above it but it cannot sustain it. It is still a toss up as to whether it will break out of this big range for a rally or whether it is consolidating for another wave down. Closed 93.01, down 23.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: It triggered a sell on Monday and has not followed through. It started to rally today and is back over the 20 day ma which is not a good sign. Move stops from 80.940 down to 80.655. Closed 80.605, up .150.
Position: Short 80.37 (3.8).
JUN MINI EUROCURRENCY: Switching to the June. It is in the same situation as the swiss in terms of chart activity. It has been consolidating and attempting to get over the 20 day ma. Which way it will eventually go is still not clear. Just watching. Closed 135.91, down .41.
JUN CANADIAN DOLLAR: Switching to the June contract. I have been trying to short it. The price has not been reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 97.45, up 15.
JUN 10 YR. NOTES: They sold off to the 20 day ma on the daily chart and has held there for three days. They could try to rally except the 117.000 level is resistance now. Closed 117.020. up .045.
JUN BONDS: They sold off to the 20 day ma average but are not holding as well as the notes. They have traded under it for two days even though they have closed right on it. Today was an outside day. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 116.14, up .01.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
