MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 5, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

GENERAL COMMENT:  After the Dollar appeared to be finally establishing a near term direction the last two days, that all changed today.  It is back over the 80.00 key support area and is also back over the 20 day ma that it violated for the first time yesterday.  In other words, it is back in the range that it started to establish in early February.  In doing so it is influencing other markets, of course.  It pushed the grains lower today and most other currencies and the metals.  Is it headed for another attempt at getting over 81.00?  That is anybody's guess.  In the meantime the key reversal top I pointed out earlier is still intact.  In the meantime the true direction of many markets is interrupted by its continued thrashing around at this level. 

The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.

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TRADE ALERTS: 

Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1.  They are placed for the day session only.
2.  They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis.  That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3.  All orders are good for that day only.

Sell March mini Japanese yen.  Sell 111.95 stop.  Protective stop 113.48.  Potential projection 110.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On both the monthly and weekly charts, the yen is in resistance.
2.  On the weekly chart, the yen is forming a preliminary key reversal top.
3.  On the daily chart, the yen formed a key reversal top today.
4.  On the daily chart, the yen is in previous resistance going back to last October.
5.  On the daily chart, a sell signal would push the yen under 112.00 support.
6.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell March Canadian dollar.  Sell 96.65 stop.  Protective stop 97.39.  Potential projection 95.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart formed a key reversal top in October that is still intact.
2.  On both the monthly and weekly charts, the cd is in major long term resistance.
3.  On the weekly chart, the cd violated the major uptrend several weeks ago - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
4.  On the daily chart the current wave up has met projections. 
5.  On the daily chart, the cd is at the high end of the range in has been stuck in since last October.  This area has produced to major sell-offs in the past.

METALS COMMENTS:

MAY COPPER:  Since the last report it has attempted to get back over 340.00 but seems to be struggling to do so.  The one concern is that this is the same area that created havoc with copper earlier this year.  That time it had a huge sell-off from this level.  It may do the same again.   On the weekly chart copper violated the major uptrend formed since early 2009 in late Jan. of this year.  The rally since early Feb. appears to be an attempt to get back over that trend line.  That trend line intersects in this general area.  If it does succeed it getting over this area, it then has the issue of the 350.00 major long term resistance to deal with.  Just watching.  Closed 337.55, down 5.595.

APRIL MINI GOLD:  Last time I pointed out the resistance at 1140.00.  It is backing off from that.  There could be more follow through but, near term, gold is in an uptrend since the Feb. 5 low.  It appears to be in the middle of a second wave up.  It has yet to meet potential projections.  I still see the potential up at 1180.00.   Closed 1133.10, down 10.20.

MAY MINI SILVER:  The macd on the silver is in the same over bought area as it was when it had a big correction in January.  One difference is that silver was also at a much higher price then.  The huge outside day mentioned last time on the daily chart triggered a buy yesterday. The follow through has not been extensive.  Today silver formed a key reversal top.  That is typical of the confusion that reigns in these markets currently.  Closed 17.176, down .153.

ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS: 

APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL:  It has finally closed over 80.000 for two days in a row.  The last time it got to this level last October, it fiddled around here for two months in a range up to 82.000.  I hope that is not the case again.  Unfortunately both the weekly and monthly charts contradict each other.  The monthly chart has a huge key reversal top formed two months ago.  The weekly has a buy signal.  Just watching.  Closed 80.21, down .66.

MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 112.24, down .90.

MAR SWISS FRANC:  It has been consolidating between 92.00 and 93.00 for over two weeks.  It finally rallied over it yesterday and the 20 day ma - breaking out from that range bound area.  It almost reached the next resistance level of 94.00 yesterday.  Today it gave half of that back and closed under the 20 day ma again.  It is either testing that breakout or will resume the downtrend.  Too early to tell.  Closed 92.82, down 83.

MAR DOLLAR INDEX:  It finally sold off under 80.000 yesterday and violated the 20 day ma.  It rallied right back over it today.  Bottom line, what appeared to be the start of a major sell-off, ended up to be nothing.  Closed 80.505, up .485.

MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:  Like the swiss, it broke out of its consolidation yesterday and rallied over the 20 day ma.  That was positive for the start of an overdue rally.  It didn't happen.  It sold off today and is back under the 20 day ma.  It is either not finished with the consolidating or is headed for new lows.  Closed 135.770, down 1.23. 

MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 97.01, up 3.

JUN 10 YR. NOTES:  Stops were reached last night.  They rallied to 117.225.  This is the same area that produced an extensive sell off in early February.  So far it is still consolidating at this level.  Closed 117.165, up .030.
Position:  Short 117.020 (3.2).  Exit 117.180 (3.4).  Loss $500.

JUN BONDS:  Today they rallied to the same price level that stopped the rally in early February.  The high then was 118.02.  That was the high today.  Just watching.  Closed 117.26, up .17.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.