MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 5, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

GENERAL COMMENT:  After the Dollar appeared to be finally establishing a near term direction the last two days, that all changed today.  It is back over the 80.00 key support area and is also back over the 20 day ma that it violated for the first time yesterday.  In other words, it is back in the range that it started to establish in early February.  In doing so it is influencing other markets, of course.  It pushed the grains lower today and most other currencies and the metals.  Is it headed for another attempt at getting over 81.00?  That is anybody's guess.  In the meantime the key reversal top I pointed out earlier is still intact.  In the meantime the true direction of many markets is interrupted by its continued thrashing around at this level. 

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TRADE ALERTS:  None for Friday.

Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1.  They are placed for the day session only.
2.  They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis.  That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3.  All orders are good for that day only.

CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short May cocoa from 29.22 down to 28.69.

GRAIN COMMENTS:   The grains have been consolidating but today when they sold off, both beans and meal violated the support areas that they were holding.  Will corn, wheat and bean oil be next? 

MAY CORN:  It has been stuck in a range for a couple of weeks right above 380.  It did violate it a couple of days ago but rallied by day's end to close over 380.  It closed above 380 today too. I do not see any direction currently.   Closed 383, down 3 3/4.

MAY WHEAT:  It triggered a buy yesterday.  Today, in response to the Dollar rallying, it is back under the 20 day ma.  That is not good.  It did close above the 500 support though.  Like corn, wheat is stuck in a range too, holding 500 support.   Keep stops at 496.  Closed 502 1/4, down 13 1/2.
Position:  Long 512 1/2 (3.3). 
Projection:  575.

MAY MINI BEANS:  They triggered a buy yesterday and the stop was reached today.  They did not hold at the 950 support and sold off under the 20 day ma.  Neither is a good sign.  They appear headed for the 925 support area on the daily chart.  Closed  942, down 21 1/2.
Position:  Long 970 1/4 (3.3).  Exit 942 (3.4).  Loss $282.50.

MAY MEAL:  At least the other grains are not even near their lows made in early February.  Meal took out its comparable low today.  The new low is 258.00.  On the monthly chart, it took out the low made in February 2009.  On the daily chart, it took out the low made in early Feb. at 259.90.  Not good at all.  Looking at the monthly chart, meal is headed for 240.00 unless it can recover pretty fast.  The daily chart is confirming that.  Closed 257.90, down 9.40.

MAY BEAN OIL:   With "business as usual" today with the dollar rallying and the grains selling off, I exited the position early.  It sold off to 39.64 but did rally towards the close.  Just watching.  Closed 40.00, down .40.
Position:  Long 39.92 (3.1).  Exit 39.80 (3.4).  Loss $72.

MEAT COMMENTS:

JUNE HOGS:  I tried to short hogs on Wednesday.  They rallied instead.  They made a new high today at 82.57.  They then sold off to close lower.  Possibly the current major rally is setting up for a correction.  Closed 82.00, down .30.

APRIL CATTLE:  Last time they had rallied aggressively off of their 20 day ma.  They followed through again yesterday with a high at 93.22.  They tried to match that today.  Longer term I still see 95.00 in the cattle.  Closed 93.02, up .12.

SOFTS:

MAY COTTON:  Last week I pointed out that cotton had almost had the identical move in February 2009
that it did in February 2008.  In 2008 that was followed by follow through up to 92.86.  This month cotton started the month out higher (84.60) but cotton is now forming a preliminary key reversal top on the monthly chart.  So far cotton is more sensitive to the 2003 resistance than putting in a performance equivalent to 2008. Tuesday it sold off to 80.66.  It has been trying to hold since. Time will tell.  Closed 81.82, down 1.15.

MAY ORANGE JUICE:  It appears it is trying to get over the 150.00 resistance. That is good resistance long term.  The last time it could do so and sustain it was in 2006.  That time it even went through the 160.00 resistance.  Since there doesn't seem to be any weather issue to warrant such a move now, I question whether it would repeat that performance.  On the daily chart, orange juice is "hanging around" the 150.00 level.  It is really anyone's guess whether it will rally over it or not.  Just watching.  Closed 149.45, up .95.

MAY COFFEE:  It continues to be dominated by the 20 day ma as attempts to rally over it continue to fail on the daily chart.  A sell signal yesterday started to follow through today with a low at 128.70.  That does not take out the low made last week at 128.25.  If coffee takes that out, that happens to be the low made last month and it would not be technically good for the market.  Just looking at the monthly chart, I see more sell-off.  The 20 day ma intersects a 126.00 approximately and that is also where there is support on the monthly.  It is struggling to hold over 130.00 but, bottom line, the daily has been in a downtrend since mid December.  It has to hold 130.00 to change that.  That charts suggest otherwise.  Closed  130.20, down 1.90.

MAY COCOA:  It sold off to 27.80 yesterday and has persisted in holding 28.00 since.  Move stops down to 28.69 from 29.22.  Closed 28.29, down 6.
Position:  Short 28.45 (3.2).
Projection:  26.00.

MAY SUGAR:  The key reversal bottom mentioned last time held today when it sold off to 21.24.  That is the same area it held in October.  A rally from here would not be a surprise, considering how much it has sold off.  Closed  21.67, down .38.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.