MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., MARCH 3, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
ARE WE THERE YET? Both the swiss and eurofx are giving several indications of bottoming nearterm. They persist in holding at major long term support levels. They have consolidated in the same area for almost two weeks. Considering the extent of the sell-off to date, they are oversold and a rally would not be a surprise.
During the same time frame the Dollar has been pushing up against resistance. Its current wave up has exceeded projections. It also has a key reversal top that was formed over two weeks ago that is still intact. Unless it can get over the 81.000 resistance and hold pretty soon, it should sell off confirming what the swiss and eurofx are starting to suggest.
One thing that further suggests this scenario is that gold and silver are making a move (rallying) even though the Dollar is stuck in the mud. These metals tend to rally when the Dollar sells off. Their strong rallies lately could possibly be suggesting that the Dollar needs and will have a break soon - no pun intended.
If what the metals are suggesting follows through, this could clear up the erratic behavior in many markets to date and re-establish some nearterm trends that have been horribly lacking of late.
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.
EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
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TRADE ALERTS: None for Wednesday.
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day session only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
METALS COMMENTS:
MAY COPPER: What a wild ride this market has been. On Monday it gapped up and rallied to 348.70. It then sold off the same day and finished filling the gap (329.50) today. It then rallied and closed above the 340.00 support. It may be starting another wave up. If so, it should reach at least 360.00. The problem is that 350.00 on the monthly chart is significant resistance. Closed 341.15, up 6.15.
APRIL MINI GOLD: It continues to rally with a high today at 1138.30. It has resistance on the daily chart at 1140.00 and then 1160.00. If this wave up can follow through, it could reach 1180.00. Just watching. Closed 1137.40, up 19.10.
MAY MINI SILVER: It formed a huge outside day today with a high at 17.105. It has resistance on the daily chart at 17.000 that it has obviously gotten over. This wave up could reach 17.500. Closed 17.064, up .595.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL: It triggered a buy yesterday but has not had any significant follow through yet. It did rally to 80.950 today but could not close over 80.000. And that is key. Long term that is a major, major problem area. It has been trading between 78.00 and 80.00 for almost two weeks. It will break out sooner or later. Which way? Closed 79.68, up .98.
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: Just looking at the daily chart, it looks like it is starting a second wave up. Unfortunately it pulled that once before in early February only to have it be a fake out and sell off. Today it rallied. It had triggered a buy from an inside day yesterday. The high today is 112.94. Closed 112.80, up 50.
MAR SWISS FRANC: It persists in trying to hold at 92.00 on the daily chart. That has been the bottom area for nine trading days. That is also where the 20 day ma intersects on the monthly chart. This is also the same area that held the market in mid 2009 prior to a major rally. This is an important area. In my last Update I said a rally would be an opportunity to short. It could reach 95.00. One could also buy the market if it can close over 93.00 with the right setup. That has not occurred yet. Closed 92.94, up 17.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: It is still stuck in a range. Attempts to get over 81.000 continue to fail. As usual, if a market cannot get through a particular area, it will normally back off and try later from a lower level. The bottom line is that the Dollar formed a key reversal top over a week ago and that has not been violated yet. So far the Dollar has held at the 20 day ma on sell-offs. Closed 80.575, down .130.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: It formed a key reversal bottom today. It persists on holding in the 135.000 long term support area. That could produce a rally to 140.000. Getting over the 20 day ma (136.70) would be key. Closed 136.000, up .250.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: It rallied to 97.00 today but then started to sell off from that resistance. Bottom line it is still stuck in its huge range and is now reaching the high end of it. It could back off from 97.00 or if it does rally further, the big resistance is around 97.80 in that range. Just watching. Closed 96.53, up 50.
JUN 10 YR. NOTES: They triggered a sell today but have not followed through so far. I had the stop at 117.170 but in checking the chart again today, I corrected it to 117.180. Closed 117.130, up .005.
Position: Short 117.020 (3.2).
Projection: 115.160.
JUN BONDS: They triggered a sell today but have not followed through so far. Just watching. Closed 117.11, down .04.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
