February 23rd, 2010
Check out Carley's recent radio interview with Vince Rowe discussing her new book "A Trader's First Book on Commodities"and curent market issues:
Segment 1 http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ON6zJ&m=1d4dyUkc7MFgzm&b=D7E0JSkT7DY.8xLY2Ada_Q
Segment 2 http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ON6zJ&m=1d4dyUkc7MFgzm&b=i7MDBTtK1MLp_mWxOqnhPA
Long awaited pullback in stock index futures
The light volume rally seemed to be suspect, and investors were looking for a reason to sell. This morning they got what they were looking for with a much weaker than expected consumer confidence index. The accumulating sell stops greased the pullback to leave the March S&P trading nearly 23 handles off of its overnight high.
According to the Conference Board, its consumer confidence index dropped to 46 in February vs. a 56.5 reading in January. If consumers act as poorly as they feel, retailers could suffer. The news overshadowed optimistic earnings reports from the likes of Home Depot, Sears, Macy's and Target.
If you were following overnight trade in the S&P, you were likely taken back by the sharp mid-night reversal. This occurred on a headline across the pond stating that the Bank of England describes England's recovery as "fragile". Also, German's business confidence index dropped for the first time in 10 months.
After seeing the overnight rally reverse (just short of our resistance numbers), it appears as though the selling could continue in the intermediate term. Our first support in the March S&P futures will be near 1088/1085 area, but a close below this could lead to a slide to 1052ish. That said, markets rarely go straight up or down so traders should be prepared for some rather large bounces on the way down. We see resistance near 1103 and then again just over 1115.
If you are trading the Russell, we had been looking for a possible pullback to 607 but the market faces strong support near 619 and we will need to see a close below this price to keep the bears in control.
The NASDAQ faces support near 1780, but a close below this could lead to a slide to the 1718 area.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
February 19 - Our clients were advised to sell the April 1165 calls for about $7.50, fills were coming in near $7.25 and a handful at $7.50.
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
