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Barchart U.S. Morning Call


Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index down -0.16% and March S&Ps up +8.40 points. The euro strengthened on speculation that Greece will get European help to tackle its budget deficit while most commodities are higher. European Union leaders will meet on Feb 11 to discuss Greece's plans to reduce its budget deficit and ECB President Trichet's decision to leave a meeting of policy makers in Sydney one day early to attend the meeting fanned speculation that officials will agree on aid. Greek bonds and stocks rallied on the news with the yield on the Greek 10-year government bond falling 10 bp to 6.66%, while Greek banks rallied smartly with National Bank of Greece SA up 6.3% and Alpha Bank AE up 7.1%. Gains in European stocks were limited as Unibail-Rodamco SE, Europe's largest shopping-center owner, dropped nearly 5% after saying the recession curbed growth in rental income, while SAS AB plunged 21% after the owner of the Nordic region's largest airline reported a loss and announced a share sale. Ubisoft Entertainment SA, Europe's largest video-game maker, fell 3.5% after US rival Electronic Arts forecast full-year earnings that trailed analysts' forecasts.

  • The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.19%, Hong Kong up +1.22%, China +0.58%, Taiwan +2.01%, Australia -0.36%, Singapore +1.91%, South Korea +1.30%, India +0.67%. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that total China Jan vehicle sales, which include buses and trucks, more than doubled to a record 1.66 million units after the government extended economic stimulus measures. Asian technology stocks rose as the prospect of a rescue for Greece eased concern that exports will decline. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which accounts on Europe for about 12% of sales, rose 2.1% and Murata Manufacturing, a Japanese maker of precision electronics that relies on Europe for 14% of revenue, climbed 2.3%. After the close of trading, Nissan Motor predicted a return to profit this year, citing government incentives that boosted demand for the company's vehicles in China and Japan. Nissan expects net income of 35 billion yen ($391 million) in the year ending Mar 31, compared with an earlier forecast of a 40 billion yen loss. Nissan closed 2.4% higher before the announcement, and Renault SA, which owns 44% of Nissan, climbed more than 3% in European trading.

Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +8.40 points. The US stock market yesterday traded higher through late morning and then turned lower and traded lower into the close to finish with moderate losses (Dow Jones -1.04%, S&P 500 -0.89%, Nasdaq Composite -0.70%). Bearish factors for stocks included (1) continued concern that deteriorating European government finances will derail the global economic recovery, (2) comments from former Fed Chairman Greenspan who said that the US economic recovery is "going to be a slow trudging thing" and that unemployment will likely stay between 9% to 10% for most of the year and that "it's very difficult to make the case that unemployment is coming down any time soon," (3) the recommendation by UBS AG for investors to reduce their stock holdings for the second time in as many weeks, as they cut their equity allocation to "neutral" from "a small overweight," saying "resolution of the challenges facing Greece, Portugal and Spain is likely to take time and as a result risk premiums will remain elevated," (4) a sell-off in solar stocks after Deutsche Bank AG said the average selling price for solar panels may fall more than 20% this year because of a glut, and (5) the report from Fitch Ratings that showed US jumbo mortgage "serious delinquencies" rose to 9.6% in Jan from 9.2% in Dec, their 32nd straight increase, illustrating the ongoing difficulties in the US housing market.

  • Bullish factors for stocks included (1) early carry-over support from gains in European stock markets after concerns eased slightly over Greece's debt crisis when French Finance Minister Lagarde said at the G-7 meeting in Canada that Greece's budget deficit will be "managed," (2) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner in an ABC News interview that the US will "never" lose its Aaa debt rating despite mounting deficits because the world still turns to dollar assets in times of global instability, (3) the rise in the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index which gained in Jan for the fifth straight month to its highest level in a year (+1.0 to 93.2%) and signaled the labor market may be poised to add workers in the coming months, (4) a rally in homebuilders after a WSJ article said the housing industry is looking "a lot less bad," citing fewer write-downs and new-home order cancellations and improved order rates, and (5) strength in raw-material and energy producers after a weaker dollar prompted a rally in most commodities.

  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) plunged 7% in European trading after the company forecast fiscal 2011 profit, excluding some items, will be 50 cents to 70 cents a share, below analysts' estimates of $1.00 a share.

  • Monsanto (MON) gained 2.5% in pre-market trading after Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised their recommendation on the stock to "buy" from "neutral," citing "attractive" prospects in the corn-seed business and an improved outllok for the Roundup weed-killer.

Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are trading unchanged. T-note prices yesterday opened weaker and traded in negative territory the entire day, finally settling down -12 ticks at 118-155. Bearish factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard that the Fed could begin selling assets to shrink its balance sheet in the second half of this year, and (2) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $40 billion 3-year T-note auction on Tuesday. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner who said that the US is in no danger of losing its Aaa debt rating, (2) the report from Fitch Ratings that showed US jumbo mortgage "serious delinquencies" rose to 9.6% in Jan from 9.2% in Dec, their 32nd straight increase, which may increase demand for Treasuries as the report shows continued crisis in the US housing market, and (3) comments from former Fed Chairman Greenspan who said on NBC's "Meet the Press" program that it's "very difficult" to see US unemployment falling anytime soon.

  • The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen +0.40 yen and the euro/dollar +0.82 cents. The dollar index yesterday traded slightly weaker the entire day and finished with modest losses. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the euro after French Finance Minister Lagarde said at the G-7 meeting in Canada that Greece's budget deficit will be "managed," (2) a rally in the commodity currencies of Canada and Norway as most commodity prices strengthened, and (3) the prediction from Commerzbank that the euro is posed to rally on "extreme positioning" as futures traders now hold record short positions in the euro which may lead to a huge short-covering rally. Bullish factors included (1) Deutsche Bank's action to cut its forecast for ECB interest rate hikes to 50 bp to 1.5% by year-end from an earlier estimate of a 100 bp of rate hikes to 2.0% by year-end, saying "sovereign stress, liquidity exit and weak money growth" all point to smaller-than-expected ECB rate hikes, and (2) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner in an ABC News interview when he said the US will "never" lose its Aaa debt rating despite mounting deficits.

  • March crude oil prices this morning are trading up +50 cents and Mar gasoline is +1.20 cents. Mar crude oil yesterday traded in positive territory most of the day and closed up +$0.70 per barrel. Mar gasoline closed up +0.76 of a cent per gallon. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) forecasts from the National Weather Service for below-normal temperatures in the eastern US which could raise demand for heating fuels, (3) attacks by militants on oil infrastructures in Nigeria that "disabled" a trunk oil pipeline operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which may lead to a decrease in Nigerian oil exports, and (4) comments from Iran's OPEC governor who said that world oil supplies are sufficient to meet demand during the first half of this year, which signals OPEC may not raise its production quotas when it meets next in March. Bearish factors for crude prices yesterday included (1) speculation that the global economic recovery is not progressing fast enough to absorb excess oil stockpiles, and (2) expectations for a build in crude oil and gasoline stockpiles when the DOE releases its weekly inventory report on Wednesday. Expectations for the weekly DOE inventory report are for crude oil supplies to rise +1.5 million bbl, gasoline inventories to climb +500,000 bbl, distillate stockpiles to drop -1.5 million bbl and the refinery capacity rate to remain unchanged at 77.7%.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) KO-Coca-Cola (BEST earnings consensus ($0.66), DIS-Walt Disney (0.38), BIDU-Baidu (1.76), BIIB-Biogen Idec (1.05), CTSH-Cognizant Technology Solutions (0.47), CAM-Cameron International (0.53), TAP-Molson Coors (1.10), CERN-Cerner (0.71), BJS-BJ Services Company (0.04), NYX-NYSE Euronext (0.48), CFN-Carefusion (0.37), XL-XL Capital Ltd (0.71), QGEN-Qiagen N.V. (0.22), CE-Celanese (0.47), PHB-Pulte Homes (-0.42).

Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 2/9/2010
United States
0745 ETICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales, previous +0.1% w/w and +0.4% weekly y/y.
0855 ETRedbook weekly retailer sales, previous -1.5% month-to-date m/m and +1.0% month-to-date y/y.
1000 ETDec wholesale inventories expected +0.5%, Nov +1.5%.
1000 ETFeb IBD/TIPP economic optimism, Jan +2.0 to 48.8.
1130 ETWeekly 4-week and monthly 1-year T-bill auctions.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $40 billion 3-year T-notes.
1700 ETABC U.S. weekly consumer confidence, previous -1 to -49.
Japan
0100 ETJan Japan machine tool orders, Dec +63.4% y/y.
1850 ETDec Japan machine orders expected +8.0% m/m and -10.8% y/y, Nov -11.3% m/m and -20.5% y/y.
1850 ETJan Japan domestic CGPI expected +0.1% m/m and -2.3% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and -3.9% y/y.
Germany
0200 ETDec German trade balance expected +15.0 billion euros, Nov +17.4 billion euros. Dec imports expected +3.0% m/m, Nov -5.9% m/m. Dec exports expected -0.1% m/m, Nov +1.6% m/m.
0200 ETRevised Jan German CPI (EU harmonized) expected no change at -0.7% m/m and +0.7% y/y.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET)LastChg%chgUpdated
US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H0)1064.308.400.80%07:11:07
DJIA (CBOT) (H0)9951560.57%07:10:37
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 502394.78-3.79-0.16%07:06:15
London UK FTSE Index5102.6210.290.20%07:06:17
German Dax Index5484.29-0.56-0.01%07:06:19
French CAC 40 Index3598.40-8.87-0.25%07:06:15
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index9933-19-0.19%01:29:01
Hong Kong Hang Seng197902391.22%03:01:30
China CSI 300 Index3169180.58%02:01:33
Taiwan TAIEX Index73611452.01%00:46:01
Australian S&P 2004505.1-16.3-0.36%00:38:23
Singapore Str. Times2745.0251.41.91%04:10:01
South Korea KOSPI 200206.012.641.30%04:03:28
Bombay Sensex 3016042106.570.67%05:29:59
Karachi KSE-100 9786-24-0.24%05:44:03
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(H0)118.1550.0000.00%07:11:13
Cash 10yr T-note Price98.080-0.075-0.24%07:19:31
Cash 10yr T-note Yield3.5890.0290.81%07:19
5yr T-note (CBT)(H0)116.2850.0050.01%07:11:11
Cash 5yr T-note Price99.305-0.050-0.16%07:20:31
Cash 5yr T-note Yield2.2600.0331.50%07:20
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(H0)118.28-0.02-0.05%07:11:15
Cash 30yr T-bond Price97.210-0.110-0.35%07:20:01
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield4.5190.0210.48%07:19
Eurodollars (CME)(H0)99.7000.0000.00%07:10:46
Eurodollars (CME)(M0)99.5700.0000.00%07:08:10
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (H0)139.330.230.17%01:00:00
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(H0)99.5700.0000.00%2/9/2010
Bunds (Eurex) (H0)123.960.050.04%07:06:12
Euribor (Eurex) (H0)99.300.020.02%05:59:55
UK Gilts (Liffe) (H0)115.30-0.16-0.14%07:06:16
Short Stlg (Liffe) (H0)99.330.010.01%06:58:27
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index80.14-0.17-0.21%07:11:16
US Dollar-Japanese Yen89.660.400.44%07:21:19
EuroFX-US Dollar1.37310.00820.82%07:21:19
US Dollar-Swiss Franc1.0685-0.0050-0.50%07:21:19
British Pound-US$1.56000.00150.15%07:21:19
US$-Canadian Dlr1.0697-0.0062-0.62%07:21:19
Yen (Globex) (H0)1.115-0.0043-0.43%07:11:05
Euro FX (Globex) (H0)1.37220.00510.37%07:11:18
SwissFranc (Globex)(H0)0.93580.00270.29%07:11:15
British Pound(Glbx)(H0)1.5595-0.0014-0.09%07:11:17
Canadian$ (Globex)(H0)0.9340.00220.24%07:11:15
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (J0)1068.92.70.25%07:11:08
Silver (Comex) (H0)15.2050.1200.80%07:11:11
Copper (Comex) (H0)293.11.80.60%07:11:11
Crude Oil (Nymex) (H0)72.390.500.70%07:11:06
Gasoline (Nymex) (H0)190.61.200.63%07:11:04
Heating Oil(Nymex) (H0)190.171.620.86%07:10:35
NaturalGas(Nymex)(H0)5.4430.0420.78%07:11:15
Corn (CBOT) (H0)359.253.250.91%07:09:38
Soybeans (CBOT) (H0)936.256.750.73%07:10:48
Wheat (CBOT) (H0)485.251.250.26%07:10:39

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Barchart U.S. Morning Call is written by the experienced members of the Commodity Research Bureau and the Barchart Research Team.  Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) has been providing research to the financial and commodity community since 1934.  If you have any questions for our analysts, please contact us at support@crbtrader.com.

Sent every morning, "Morning Call" summarizes overnight global market news, along with a U.S. market forecast for the day ahead. It Includes upcoming earnings reports, a global financial calendar, and quote board overview of where the markets are standing.

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