January 20th, 2009
Register for Carley's online class through the New York Institute of Finance discussing option selling at http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ON6zJ&m=1dYoDttQRMFgzm&b=sOnTfxwQzPHpNZ..gvPBfA!!
Market gets what it wants but isn't happy
A frothy market can be hard to please, especially during earnings season. Stocks rallied yesterday on hopes of a Republican victory in the Massachusetts senate race (which is interpreted as gridlock on tax hikes and the healthcare bill). A Republican took the state's seat for the first time since the early 1970's but that wasn't enough to overcome fresh concerns over tightened lending standards in China.
Last week, news of Chinese monetary policy aimed at cooling down an overheated recovery sent the market swooning. The latest move to prevent "speculative bubbles" in China is increased monitoring of banks. Investors worry that such efforts will hinder the global economy. Also adding pressure share prices, earnings from industry bellwethers such as IBM and Morgan Stanley were on the disappointing side.
We still like selling rallies in this market, but the recent action has left our technical models with mixed signals....not to mention we have been unable to successfully execute the short call option recommendations made to clients. Nonetheless, missing trades is part of the game...if it were easy, we would all get bored!
We are hoping for a run to 1155 area in the S&P, but whether or not we see it will depend on earnings and tomorrows numbers. Should this price be seen, we will likely be shopping for bearish option trades.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
December 28 - Sell 1 mini NASDAQ near 1879
- Hopefully you are out of this, in the newsletter dated 1-15 (emailed intraday) we recommended getting out near 1853. If not, you might have to ride the market back up before more selling comes in.
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
http://www.commodityoptionsthebook.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
