January 12th, 2009
Register for Carley's online class through the New York Institute of Finance discussing option selling at http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ON6zJ&m=1gjZAfYXoMFgzm&b=FdZCrKRKuaZpO2m4QIw.rw!!
Earnings woes weigh on market
Six consecutive days of equity gains weren't meant to be seven (keep in mind that the market has never had 9 consecutive up days in a row). Traders were looking for a reason to roll the market over, and Alcoa seemed like the perfect opportunity.
The aluminum giant missed earnings estimates despite beating revenue forecasts. They also posted a much narrower loss for the quarter than was reported last year during the same time. All in all, I think that it is fair to say that the news wasn't fundamentally disastrous but it seemed to carry a psychological wallop.
Technology acted as a weight around the neck of the broad market. The March NASDAQ futures traded much weaker, in regards to percentage loss, relative to the S&P and the Russell. Given that tech was a market leader on the way up, this could be a sign of more underlying weakness to come.
As we had been predicting in previous newsletters, the S&P ran into trouble in the mid-to-high 1140's, 1900ish acted as a ceiling for the NASDAQ and the Russell held our 649 resistance area. If this information could have helped you with your trading, and you aren't already trading with us...maybe you should give it some thought. Our clients receive this newsletter daily along with intraday commentary (an guidance depending on the service level chosen). We offer services ranging from broker assisted to discount online and would be happy to work with you to find an arrangement that is comfortable.
What happens from here will depend on earnings but we tend to think that the overall direction will be lower. The first downside target will be 1120 in the S&P and if things weaken from there we will be looking for 1090.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
December 28 - Sell 1 mini NASDAQ near 1879
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
http://www.commodityoptionsthebook.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
