January 8th, 2009
We've remodeled, check out http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ON6zJ&m=1ei1R_OgwMFgzm&b=UEezp0GOuPT_YB9ZQ5GO6g !
Jobs numbers a minor miss
Equities traded relatively mixed following a moderate miss on the non-farm payrolls numbers. Despite the slightly bearish news, it seems as though the painfully slow short squeeze is still in full effect. In the midst of the melt-up, the CBOE's volatility index, the VIX, has dropped to 18 and is now in territory not seen since October 2008...just before the "end of the world" as we knew it.
Some smart traders struggled in 2009 trying to call a high to the "bear market bounce" in equities but it seems as though, if there are any bears left they might finally get their payday. It is impossible to predict just how high the current rally will take the major indices, but we have a feeling we are nearing an end...at least for now. Along with seasonal reversals looming, the low volatility is likely just the calm before the storm. A low (oversold) VIX can often signal a down turn in equities is imminent.
It looks like the market will be searching for buy stops on Monday morning (mutual fund Monday), accordingly we estimate that the mid-to-high 1140's (or even 1150) could be seen. That said, we doubt that prices will be able to sustain themselves at these levels in the near term.
If you are trading the NASDAQ, we still think that 1900ish will be a ceiling for now. The Russell on the other hand could see as high as 649 but we would be bears at such levels.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
December 28 - Sell 1 mini NASDAQ near 1879
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
http://www.commodityoptionsthebook.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
