December 30th, 2009
SFO Magazine ranked Carley's first book "Commodity Options" in the top 10 trading and investment books of 2009: http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=6K1iZ&m=1fI0hR2QqKigzm&b=21Y5iIMV_RIGmnSy8j2JoA
Slow...really slow
This is one of the toughest weeks of the year to be a market commentator. Aside from today's 7-year note auction and an unfortunate incident in which I deleted half of our website (and had to pay a real developer to fix), there is very little to talk about. Therefore, I will keep my comments brief.
The 7-year notes drew 3.345% and a bid to cover of 2.72 and an indirect bidder take of 44.7%. Rick Santelli of CNBC rated the auction an A, and that was good enough for the market to find a small bid. The buying has been meager at best, but so has the volume and this might simply be a sign of the times.
From a technical standpoint, it seems as though bonds might have turned the corner in the near-term. We are looking for the 30-year bond to see prices in the 117 area as long as the equity markets fail to take hold. If you are trading the notes...look for a possible move to 117 in the 10-year note and the 5-year note to the mid-115's.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
December 28 - Our clients were recommended to sell the March Bond 110 puts for 23 or better.
December 10 - Our clients were recommended to sell the Feb bond 113 puts for 24.
- December 11 - Clients with available margin and willingness to accept more risk were advised to add on to this position by selling the Feb 113 puts at 34 or better. A handful were filled at this price, many went unable.
- December 17 - Our clients were advised to take profits today on the rally. Fills were coming back at 9 and 10 ticks, so assuming an entry price of 24 and exit of 9 the trade was profitable by about $235 per contract before commissions and fees.
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.carleygarnertrading.com/
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
