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E Hedger Grain Market Commentary 12/29/09


Settlement 12/29

 

Soybeans closed higher, wheat closed lower and corn closed mixed.  The grain markets remain thin ahead of the New Year.  As I have said before, we will be receiving a lot of information on the January 12th reports and this has many traders on the sidelines for the time being.  Also, the market is waiting to see how much "new money" enters after Jan.1st.  The expectation for large allocations of money in this timeframe has kept support in the markets for now and provided a good selling opportunity for farmers.  We have seen a lot of farmer selling in the past few trading sessions and expect this to continue at the start of the year.  We should see farmer selling pick up dramatically (especially corn) after the start of 2010 as farmers free up some cash for tax season. Many farmers sold soybeans "off the combine" and stored corn.  A lot of this corn is not storing well and these bushels will be moved shortly.  For these reasons alone, I would make sure you are all caught up on sales by January 1.  If we do see a lot of farmer selling in January, it will be hard to find enough buying to accommodate this selling at current prices.  The calls that we bought a couple of weeks ago should give you the confidence to fire off cash sales at these levels and higher.  January will be a very important month and the information we receive will help structure our market for 2010.  If we continue to see a run-up in prices ahead of these reports, it will be a good idea to have some good sales on the books before this time.

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Justin Kelly grew up working on his family's farm in western Illinois, and has been intimately involved in the agricultural industry his entire life. After graduating from Purdue University with a BS degree in Agribusiness Management, Justin was a CBOT member and corn pit broker for Iowa Grain Co. In 2006 Justin went on to lead Iowa Grain's research department. Today as President and Principle of EHedger, Justin applies his hands on experience of both farming and futures trading to helping producers and merchandisers implement solid risk management strategies tailored to their specific requirements.

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