This report was sent to subscribers on 12/29/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/30/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Natural Gas 

After the close on 12/30/09: My resistance was 5.918, just .011 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 5.698 FG, only .003 from the actual low.

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Bulls eye target of the red bracket line resistance at 6.170 fell just short, not surprising after rallying 30+% in 3 weeks.

I said "Bulls need to recapture steep uptrend line above 5.800, bears eye the bracket line support (green)". Indeed on Monday the market gapped just above the steep uptrend line at 5.808 and targets the red bracket line.

I have said for months since adding this contract "This is one market that holds its steep trend lines longer and more often than any other market I chart right now". 

February Nat Gas for 12/30/09: 

In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .048 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .020 from the actual low.      

Natural Gas: Accurate resistance and spot on support (.048 and .020). Too close to the bracket line resistances for me to want to be a buyer, but the bulls are still in control as long as the pivot holds. The gap support at 5.698 is the only real support that I would use for a place to put a sell stop just below.

Under the pivot is the gap and everything below the pivot will be more supportive than if it was not all "gap" it would only be supportive near the actual support. Another way to say it is that the gap was left at 5.698 and the low since the gap was made is 5.808, and everything below 5.808 to 5.698 is more supportive than if there was no gap in price.

Commentary for 12/29/09

Natural Gas: Accurate resistance number, not helpful support since they gapped over .100 higher on the open and ran higher from there.

Commentary for 12/28/09

Natural Gas: .005 off the high and .012 off the low were perfect in a .319 range for the day.

Commentary for 12/24/09

Natural Gas: Spot on support and helpful resistance. Nearing the red bracket line now so I cannot be a buyer, this quick trending market can turn on a dime. Bulls should have some sort of risk protection from here versus what will be gained if right.

Commentary for 12/23/09

Natural Gas: Spot on numbers! Steep uptrend line was solid support and will continue to be. This week's high is resistance, but the location to buy here is harder than if I wanted to sell.

Commentary for 12/22/09

Natural Gas: Spot on resistance and helpful support. Same thoughts as yesterday

Commentary for 12/21/09

Natural Gas: Spot on numbers, and my comment to take profits if long was also a good call. My idea to sell near the red bracket line fell short, but sellers could have sold at resistance for a nice profitable trade. Longer term bears could place a buy stop just above Friday's high looking for a retest of the uptrend line (green) near 5.500. Bulls should look to buy again near there, and if that goes then a retest of the green bracket line support is next near the gap at 5.232.

Commentary for 12/18/09

Natural Gas: Numbers were no help unless you used the 1/2 way rule and that is seen mostly in larger range markets (like this one). Inventories were -207 bcf vs. -179 bcf expected. It was the largest decline since Jan 25th '08 when stocks fell 274 bcf. This is one volatile market and not for the faint of heart, and certainly one that proves you must have a plan to exit a losing trade and not worry about what the market does once you are out, but rather you should worry about losing more money in a losing trade. Stops or an option strategy with a known risk is the only way I play a volatile market like this and the gold market right now.

I would take profits if long, and I would sell if waiting to do so at the red resistance bracket line near 6.140, using a buy stop not too far above to protect.

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Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.