The Weekly Gold Digger
The US Dollar showed some strength this week as varied countries were either downgraded in their credit worthiness or rumered to potentially be downgraded. Dubai led the group with their Billions of debt coming due shortly. Abu Dhabi has stepped in with the offer of a 10 Billion Dollar loan, but the details are still yet to be revealed. France, Great Britain, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and China have been potentially slated for the downgrading causing the general economic outlook to become bleak. In the wake of all of the hearsay and rumours about, the US Dollar has gained interest as a safe-haven asset to skirt the risk in other assets. Federal Chairman Bernanke spoke this week leaving our interest rate policy unchanged for an extended period of time. We will be gaging the economic recovery on a variety of factors and the affect on the US Dollar. In this case, I still believe that in the long term, we shall see the US Dollar drift lower. The ICE Futures U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®), is the international value of the US dollar and the world's most widely-recognized, publicly-traded currency index. By using the Dollar Index, traders can take advantage of moves in the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of world currencies or can hedge their portfolio of assets against the risk of a move in the US dollar in a single transaction. US Dollar Index futures are traded for 22 hours a day on the electronic trading platform of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). The US Dollar appears to be in a temporary bullish trend to a near-term potential high of $79.69. Should the market penetrate $74.21, the market may take a bearish stance for a long term target of $72.00 Why am I elaborating on the US Dollar as a Gold Trader? While the US Dollar remains weighted against the six major currencies, Gold may be boosted by a variety of factors: It is purchased as a safe-haven by investors shifting from low interest bearing government bonds and other products that cannot keep up with the rate of inflation. The Gold may be traded in physical bullion, ETF's, XAU, Spider Gold Trust and futures contracts to name a few. Typically, in years past, the currency of a country could be backed by physical gold. It is my opinion that the Gold Market had moved up too fast on the news of the IMF selling Gold to India. The momentum created may have brought many traders in to the buying frenzy. The market went up entirely too fast for a healthy trending market. Now, we experience the retracement that comes from a market on the move. This selloff started with the Unemployment Report showing the fewest jobless claims in quite some time. The momentum builds on this type of news. Technical traders had reflected an overbought market during the run-up. The selloff set off stops and profit taking.
Gold
The February Gold seems to be in a downslide at present. It is my opinion that support may be found still lower. $1060.00 is my first point of interest and where it may find it's comfort level. If this first level is penatrated, $1055.50 would be my potential support. This would be considered as a potential buy zone with the next level of $1028.00 taken into consideration. While next week may lead to temporary retracements in the Gold market, long term views of the Gold may be optimistic. Small traders should be sure to follow their trading plan with a distinct plan with risk parameters set to their risk tolerance. The use of stops, while prohibitive may allow an account take smaller losses during some very large market moves. The use of options with futures positions and/or option strategies may again keep the risk at a specific level. Entering this market at $1050.00 to $1060.00, one must be prepared for a potential support at $1028.00 or lower. $1172.00 breeched would set the tone for further buying. While I am cautionary during these economic conditions, my long-term objective on the Gold Market into 2010 is $1365.55 or higher. Typically, I look for highs to be achieved in March of 2010 and then potentially July 2010.
For those of you following last weeks Trade Recommendations: Please call in for a personal consultation to cover those positions.
New Potential Trades and Trade Follow-up
Aggressive & conservative traders may stand aside until the market has retraced..
No new trades suggested in the weekly time frame.
Please call for finer tuned trades daily.
The CME Group announced that they are introducing Mini Gold Kilogram contracts to meet the increased interest of investors. The smaller contracts may allow investors to participate in the Gold Market with less margin.
Due to the fluctuations in this market, please consult with your broker, or call us to strategize a risk management plan in line with your personal risk tolerance. Traders that wish to participate in the Gold Futures Markets may look at the E-Mini Gold contracts which have a lower margin requirement than that of the larger Gold contract. Please look for current margins before entering this market and be sure to allow cash cushion for any adverse conditions. Please consult with your broker to calculate the risk, stop loss orders or option strategies before entering such a volatile market. Investors that wish to take a position in the Gold Futures market should devise a plan according to their goals, risk tolerance and the amount of money they are willing to risk in this sector. Like many other investments, the success of the trading plan must take into consideration the timing of the entries and exits.
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Please call or email me for the complete recommendation to coincide with your risk tolerance, so that we may apply the correct Money Management. The Weekly Gold Digger is a Free Weekly subscription to receive trading opportunities by email along with fundamental commentary and basic technical points of interest.
Take a close look and feel free to call in and talk to me in greater detail. It would be my pleasure. Good trading!
Call me at (877) 224-1952 or email me at lburton@danielstrading.com
Risk Disclosure
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or services.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
