December 11th, 2009
Register for our upcoming option selling webinar hosted by the New York Institute of Finance http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ON6zJ&m=1geVStPfmcFgzm&b=33HZDReb4QzWyYr0enk6Vg
Stocks grind higher
The equity markets posted modest gains on another round of positive economic data. The buying seems to be slow paced and signals a potentially tired market. However, light volume ahead of the holiday and option expiration might work in favor of the bulls.
The Commerce Department reported a 1.3% increase in November retail sales. Investors also enjoyed signs of an economic rebound in China in the form of increased exports. Meanwhile, consumers are growing more confident according to the Reuters/University of Michigan index.
As of yesterday, March is the front month for each of the stock indices. If you haven't already rolled over, you need to do so!
We are still leaning higher in the near term. Look for resistance in the March S&P near 1112 but we think that stop running could take us to 1130ish. Support lies near 1095 then 1082. The March Russell could be setting up for a retest of the 623 area and has support near 590. If we are right about the broad market, the NASDAQ could see the mid-1840's.
In case you missed it yesterday, here are our thoughts going into next week:
Like it or not, the market is probably going higher from here. I doubt that the buying pressure will come from fresh bulls, but the shorts caught on the wrong side (again) might start to feel the squeeze. That said...I wouldn't be the farm on any trade or speculation. From my conversations with others in the industry, many have already opted to take the rest of the year off. December markets can be dangerous and for those that have had a good year, it doesn't make sense to take on unnecessary risk.
Here is what our friends on the CME floor have to say:
http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ON6zJ&m=1geVStPfmcFgzm&b=s4XP40fTsuPUoB7C4pHXow
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
