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EHedger Grains Market Commentary 12/01/09


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SETTLEMENTS 12/01

Grain Settlement - 12/01

Corn and wheat closed lower while bean prices were mixed.  Beans and wheat were strong early in the day but prices set back during the last part of the session.  It looked like traders rushed to buy the market early waiting for new fund buying to come into the market to start the month. However, when the money failed to show up, everyone who bought it early raced to get out.

The biggest factor for the soybean market remains the outside markets.  Investment money continues to enter all commodities including soybeans.  Fundamentally, soybean prices look to be overvalued.  Good South American weather and more available U.S. acres this spring should help global stock rise sharply in the coming 9 months.  Imported soybeans into China are around the same price as their domestic soybeans.  This could also start to limit Chinese imports in the coming months.  However, the trend is up right now.  Most bears are tired of "fighting" this market and until the market turns down and the investment buying slows down, few speculators will be willing to sell the market.  We still believe this current soybean rally is giving the American producer a great selling opportunity. We sold another 10% for 2010 crops to bring us up to 40 % sold.

The corn market has been awaiting the EPA's decision on whether or not they will increase blending rates for U.S. ethanol.  However, the EPA came out before the open and said they are going to be delaying their decision.  Basically we don't know what the EPA is going to say or when the funds are going to stop buying the market. However, what we do know is that export demand is not great, feed margins are dwindling and we are going to have more available acres in the spring.

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Justin Kelly grew up working on his family's farm in western Illinois, and has been intimately involved in the agricultural industry his entire life. After graduating from Purdue University with a BS degree in Agribusiness Management, Justin was a CBOT member and corn pit broker for Iowa Grain Co. In 2006 Justin went on to lead Iowa Grain's research department. Today as President and Principle of EHedger, Justin applies his hands on experience of both farming and futures trading to helping producers and merchandisers implement solid risk management strategies tailored to their specific requirements.

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