November 23rd, 2009
Look for our market outlook quoted in the December issue of Futures Magazine!
Can you say "mutual fund Monday"?
Stocks started the week off with a bang; it seems as though Friday's option expiration was holding stocks down, rather than propping them up. With that out of the way, an economic calendar chock full of data and thinly traded markets we can't help but looking higher from here. Thanksgiving has always seen investors give thanks by buying up shares of stock, so we are expecting the December S&P to see 1130ish at some point this week.
Coming into this week, we were looking for weakness in early Monday trade with the premise that weakness could be an opportunity to "get long" with either options or futures. However, that weakness never arrived. Instead, the stock index futures opened up firm on Sunday evening remained overall positive throughout the entire session.
Equity index futures were outperforming before the day's news, but better than expected home sales and a weaker dollar were the icing on the cake for stock market bulls. According to the National Association of Realtors, October home sales rose more than 10%.
The trend is higher and the volume is light but the data is thick. Despite the shortened trading week, we will hear about the latest GDP reading, consumer confidence, the FOMC minutes, new home sales and Michigan sentiment as the week progresses. Barring any large surprises in the data, and aside from potential back and fill trade in the overnight session the market "feels" higher from here. Our first resistance in the S&P is near 1024 but we think that 1030 is in the cards. If you are trading the NASDAQ, we see resistance near 1820 but feel like 1840 is possible, at which time we would be bearish. Look for resistance in the Russell near 606 then again near 625.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
November 11 - We recommended that our clients sell the December S&P 1160 calls for $7 or better. Some were getting fills near $6.75 others opted to continue working the order at $7.
- November 16 - Standing orders to sell the 1160 call for $7 were filled.
- November 19 - clients were recommended to buy their December 1160 calls back this afternoon on the dip. Fills were coming back from 2.75 to 2.85.
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.carleygarnertrading.com/
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
