Thursday, November 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil and U.S. stock index prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Many may be wondering, "When will the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices stop having such a strong influence over many of the other commodity futures markets?" A look at my price screen this morning shows the answer is, "Not yet." One early technical clue that the U.S. dollar index has put in a major low would be if prices scored two very strong up days in a row--meaning gains of more than 60 points on both days. Same with crude oil: two days in a row of losses of more than $2.50 a barrel would be a clue that market has topped out.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today, on a profit-taking pullback from recent gains. The indexes are still just below 13-month highs and the bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,091.40 and then at 1,082.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,109.30 and then at this week's high of 1,112.10. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,079.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 1,106.80
1st Support:-------- 1,102.75
2nd Support:-------- 1,097.00
1st Resistance:----- 1,112.55
2nd Resistance:----- 1,116.60
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,771.00 and then at 1,760.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,802.25 and then at the contract high of 1,815.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,752.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,800.40
1st Support:------ 1,788.10
2nd Support:------ 1,775.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,812.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,825.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,300 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 10,285. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,375 and then at Wednesday's contract high of 10,408. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,112
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,384
1st Support:------ 10,360
2nd Support:------ 10,316
1st Resistance:--- 10,428
2nd Resistance:--- 10,452
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum, but need to show more power soon.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120 14/32 and then at 120 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Tuesday's high of 121 even and then at Wednesday's high of 121 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 24/32
December U.S. T-Bonds
137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
121 21/32--second pivot point resistance
121 9/32--previous day's high
121 3/32--first pivot point resistance
120 22/32--pivot point
120 16/32--previous day's close
120 15/32--4-day moving average
120 10/32--previous day's low
120 4/32--first pivot point support
119 23/32--second pivot point support
119 16/32--9-day moving average
119 8/32--18-day moving average
118 22/32--100-day moving average
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 119.27.5 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 119.12.0 and then at 119.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119.07.0
December U.S. T-Notes
125 28/32--lifetime high
119 31/32--second pivot point resistance
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 26/32--previous day's high
119 23/32--first pivot point resistance
119 17/32--pivot point
119 15/32--4-day moving average
119 14/32--previous day's close
119 12/32--previous day's low
119 9/32--first pivot point support
119 3/32--second pivot point support
119 1/32--9-day moving average
118 17/32--18-day moving average
117 2/32--100-day moving average
116 28/32--previous month's low
107 3/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 75.72 and then at 75.88. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.20 and then at 75.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.83. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4842 and then at this week's low of 1.4806. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4900 and then at the overnight high of 1.4963. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4898. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today, on profit taking and amid a firmer U.S. dollar index. Gold bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues of a market top being close at hand. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,146.50 and then at $1,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,133.00 and then at $1,125.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,131.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today on some profit taking. Bulls this week have gained fresh upside technical momentum. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $79.76 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $80.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.76 and then more sell stops just below support at $78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.55. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Grain bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. The key outside markets are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as crude oil and stock index futures prices are weaker, while the U.S. dollar index is firmer. Traders will closely examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales data.
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