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Softs Market Commentary


March sugar closed down 11 points at 23.12 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Prices are still trending lower from the early-September high, which is worrisome to the bulls. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 24.00 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the November low of 21.78 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 23.33 cents and then at 23.50 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 22.78 cents and then at 22.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March coffee closed down 75 points at 138.70 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and saw a corrective pullback from big gains Monday. A stronger U.S. dollar also pressured coffee a bit yesterday. Coffee bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage. Coffee bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 147.95 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 133.05 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 140.35 cents and then at 142.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 137.25 cents and then at 136.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

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March cocoa closed down $2 at $3,154 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. A stronger U.S. dollar pressured cocoa yesterday. Cocoa bulls still have the overall technical advantage, but prices are still trending lower from the October high. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,300. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $3,000. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $3,190 and then at $3,228. First support is seen at $3,125 and then at the November low of $3,102.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March cotton closed down 70 points at 71.97 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. A stronger U.S. dollar index pressured cotton yesterday. Last week's price action did produce a bearish "key reversal" down on the daily bar chart. That is one clue that a market top is in place. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 68.75 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 74.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 72.77 cents and then at 73.04 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 71.70 cents and then at 71.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

January orange juice closed down 80 points at $1.1240 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday and hit another fresh two-week low. The FCOJ bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the November low of $1.0935. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $1.2160. First resistance is seen at $1.1400 and then at yesterday's high of $1.1550. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $1.1165 and then at $1.1000.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

January lumber futures again closed locked up the $10.00 limit at $239.50 yesterday. Prices hit a fresh five-month high again yesterday. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum yesterday. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $248.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $225.00. First resistance is seen at $245.00 and then at $248.00. First support is seen at $235.00 and then at $230.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

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About the author


Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.

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