MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, NOV. 13, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

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GRAIN COMMENTS: GRAINS & THE DOLLAR: A client pointed out to me that when grains made their run in late 2007 - early 2008, the Dollar was in the price range that we are seeing now. It had stabilized in this area for a few months before making a final low in April 2008 at 71.050. Both corn and wheat ignored the final dip down to 71.050 and continued their rally. The bean complex responded and sold off too but then rallied again. Will the same happen again?  If it does, the grains are oversold and should be setting up for a move.

DEC CORN: It rallied to 403 yesterday. That was the second attempt to get over the magic 400 resistance in less than a month. The sell-off last night held at the 20 day MA and the low 380 area support. The weekly chart is triggering a preliminary buy but it needs to get over 400. Keep stops at 365. Closed 390 1/2, down 3 1/2.Position: Long 390 1/2 (11.10).
Projection: 450.

DEC MINI WHEAT: I went long yesterday and paid up. It took out yesterday's high today. The weekly has triggered a preliminary buy this week. Looking at the weekly, it is behind the other grains and if it is going to have a rally, it is probably the best buy of the grains. Keep stops at 495. Closed 531 3/4, unchanged.
Position: Long 530 (11.11).
Projection: 625.

JAN SOYBEANS: They are starting to look more positive. They are back over the 975 support area and are over the 20 day MA for the first time in well over a week. The recent sell-off that held at the 950 support, formed a key reversal bottom. But the "fly in the ointment" is that the weekly chart has triggered a preliminary sell this week. As mentioned before, beans need to get over 1000 for me to get interested. Closed 990, up 18.

DEC MEAL: Last time I pointed out that its chart is kind of messy. It still is but the weekly triggered a buy some time ago. That is still intact. It continues to try to hold in the 290 area. Other than that, I see nothing to do. Just watching. Closed 301, up 11.90.

DEC BEAN OIL: I bought it yesterday. Today it rallied to 38.63. Since the lows last December it has had two waves up. The correction to the second wave bottomed in July. Since then, it has been stuck in a range between roughly 32.50 and the high 38.00 level. Keep stops at 36.40. Closed 38.37, unchanged.
Position: Long 38.13 (11.11)
Projection: 40.50.

DEC HOGS: Correction: Last time I said they were trying to hold at the 54.00 level. That should have read 55.00 level. I also pointed out that they could be setting up for a sell-off. That has started and today's low is 54.27. They did not hold at the 20 day MA and that makes me suspect that there will be more to this. They do have support at 54.00 on the daily chart but could go down to 53.00. Watching closely to buy. Closed 54.45, down 1.15.

DEC CATTLE: For some time I have mentioned that the monthly chart suggested an attempt at the 80.00 support level. That seems to be starting. On the daily chart they have started another wave down with a low today at 82.77. The monthly chart triggered a sell last month and is starting to follow through. Just watching. Closed 82.85, down .80.

DEC COTTON: We have all heard the saying, "you can't change the spots on a leopard." Well, that sure applies to cotton. Since the March lows, every time it makes a new high and suggests a new "breakout" to get all excited about, sure enough it turns around and drops like a rock either the same day or the very next day. I have been just watching and am thankful for that. This time around it had been consolidating between roughly 66.50 up to 69.25 since early October. Well, it pulled the classic breakout to the upside yesterday and rallied to 70.61 suggesting a follow through rally. Right? Wrong! The same day it formed a key reversal top and closed near the lower end of the range it has been it. Today it is following through to the downside with a low at 65.87. This is a typical example of a false breakout in a market that I have pointed out for some time has been occurring more frequently. The only difference with cotton is that it is habitual. You really have to watch "breakouts" carefully. Closed 66.42, down 88.

JAN ORANGE JUICE: It is attempting to rally and may do so. The bottom line is that it is still stuck in a range and not doing much. It did break out to the downside but rallied back into the range the next day. That was in early November. It hasn't done anything since. Just watching. Closed 117.40, up 1.15.

DEC COFFEE: In my last Update I said that the current sell-off should set up for a buying opportunity. I see no change in that and am waiting for the sell-off to stop. Today's low 130.00. Closed 130.65, down 2.60.

DEC COCOA: An inside day yesterday triggered another sell today. I have obviously been out of step with cocoa lately so I'll continue to watch. Besides this sell signal is coming in at a support level right under 31.00. Just watching. Closed 30.73, down 77.

MARCH SUGAR: I lowered stops yesterday and was stopped out with a profit. It rallied up to the 20 day MA today and stopped. An earlier sell signal is still intact. Closed 22.69, up 10.
Position: Short 23.43 (11.5). Exit 22.42 (11.11). Profit $1131.20.

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