MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., NOV. 11, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
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TRADE ALERTS:
Buy December mini wheat. Buy 525 3/4 stop. Protective stop 495. Potential projection 625,
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a double bottom.
2. On the monthly chart, wheat continues to hold the major 500 support during sell-offs.
3. On the weekly chart, wheat has held at the 20 day moving average for the last four weeks. That is positive.
4. On the daily chart, wheat formed a double bottom today.
5. On the daily chart, wheat rallied back over the 20 day moving average today after closing under it on Friday. That is positive.
6. On the daily chart, wheat negated a sell signal triggered on Friday. Normally when a market does so that quickly, it follows through in the new direction.
Buy December bean oil. Buy 38.10 stop. Protective stop 36.40. Potential projection 40.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts, bean oil is breaking out of a pennant formation to the upside.
2. The monthly chart has a major key reversal bottom.
3. The weekly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
4. On the weekly chart, bean oil rallied over the 20 day MA five weeks ago and has held that support on sell-offs.
5. A buy signal on the daily chart would push bean oil over the downtrend formed since the June high - further suggesting a trend change from down to up.
6. A buy signal on the daily chart would trigger a preliminary buy signal on the weekly chart.
7. A buy signal on the daily chart, would push bean oil over the 38.00 resistance.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: Stops were reached last Friday. It then sold off to 365 1/4 yesterday and then formed a key reversal bottom and an outside day. I went long this morning. I elected to do two minis because of the grain report and that can make the grains volatile. Today's high 397. The key now is getting over 400. Keep stops at 365. Closed 394 1/2, up 8 1/2.
Position: Long 384 1/2 (11.3) Exit 372 1/2 (11.6.). Loss $600.
New Position: Long 390 1/2 (11.10).
Projection: 450.
DEC MINI WHEAT: Stops were reached last Friday as wheat sold off too. Wheat recovered yesterday and rallied back over the 20 day MA. The real key now is the 525 level. I tried to buy it today but the price was not reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 523, up 3.
Previous Position: Long 519 ½ (11.3). Exit 503 (11.6). Loss $165.
JAN MINI BEANS: Their recent sell-off held at 950. They also formed a key reversal bottom yesterday and continued to hold 950 again today. My concern with beans both long and short term is the 1000 level. It is a problem area again this month. Just watching for now. Closed 968, down 4.0.
DEC MEAL: It made a new low today and formed an outside day on the daily chart. Long term the charts just don't look that good. They suggest the potential to go to 280.00. In the move earlier this summer, meal was the aggressive one. The daily chart looks "messy" to me for lack of a better word. Just watching. Closed 288.20, down 6.10.
DEC BEAN OIL: I tried to buy it today but it did not get over 38.00. The high was 37.75. I still think it will do it and will try again tomorrow to buy it. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 37.56, down 21.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: They have been selling off and now appear to be trying to hold at the 54.00 support. The 20 day MA also intersects at that level too. Longer term they need to hold 55.00 or we could see further sell-off. That area has been the bottom at least three times since 2006. They can even trade under that price level a little but tend to come back. I still think they have made a major bottom as the monthly has a buy signal. How much of a sell-off they could be setting up for is still not determined. Closed 55.62, down 17.
DEC CATTLE: Last time they had a sell signal that was still intact. So far that has continued to follow through. The new low today is 84.60. Long term they look headed for the 82.50 level at least. They have given so many false starts when it comes to a major rally and have never been able to follow through. Instead they just trade back and forth and have been in a huge range from 80.00 up to 89.00 approximately. If they can ever break out of that on either side, the move should be huge. Just watching. Closed 84.60, down 35.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It rallied today and is now back at the high end of the range it has been stuck in. Today's high 69.23. This is the area that stopped the market twice before. The first time was in mid October when it reached 69.49. On Nov. 2 it got to 69.26 and then fizzled out. Based on the MACD, it is suggesting that this time it will break out of that range. I'm just watching. Closed 69.05, up 1.44.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: It is stuck in a rut, to say the least. Every time OJ is quiet like this and trades in narrow ranges, watch out. It makes a strong move. I still lean towards a major sell-off. Just watching. Closed 115.20, down 35.
DEC COFFEE: Last time I pointed out that it was sitting in the same area that has caused problems in the past. Sure enough, it started to sell off today and collapsed. The low 133.15. This should set up for a buying opportunity. Closed 134.05, down 6.00.
DEC COCOA: I am still grumbling to myself about being stopped out of my short position last week. It has sold off since with a new low today at 30.55. It is frustrating but that is the way it is sometimes. Just watching. Closed 30.89, down 69.
MAR SUGAR: It has continued to sell off today with a low at 21.78. That was the low of the last correction on Oct. 28. It needs to take that out obviously. Last year when sugar topped, it was on its attempt at a third wave down that it finally broke out of that top formation and collapsed. It is in the process of a potential third wave down now. Stops were moved to 22.75 this morning. Closed 21.91, down 50.
Position: Short 23.43 (11.5).
Projection: 20.00.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
