November 6th, 2009
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Just another boring Friday
Despite all of the pent up anticipation over today's employment report, it turned out to be less than exciting. According to our sources, there were only 40 locals standing in the pit near the close...the others had already welcomed the weekend.
As you have probably already read, the non-farm payrolls were reported as a draw of 190,000 and the unemployment rate finally hit the dreaded 10% mark. However, the numbers weren't too far off of the mark and had, more or less, been priced in.
An upgrade of GE lifted investor spirits; Bernstein Research and Oppenhiemer both upgraded their ratings on GE to "outperform".
The major indices settled nearly flat after a few bouts of volatility that favored both the bull and bear camps at alternative points in the morning. In terms of price, it might be fair to say that the session was a tie between buyers and sellers. However, from a psychological and technical aspect I see today's trade as a victory for the stock market bulls. Not only did the cash market Dow close above 10,000 but the December S&P futures managed to settle just above my 1066 pivot area. Both of these events suggests that the odds are in favor of a mutual fund Monday.
Fundamentals aside, price action tells me that we could be headed much higher from here. My weekly analysis points toward a possible move to 1120 in the S&P. Of course this type of move wouldn't happen overnight, but at some point in November it looks to be a real possibility. Others that I am in contact with have targets closer to 1140.
Next week, look for 1066 to be the make or break number in the S&P but our first upside target will be 1103. If I am wrong, the first support will be near 1026. If you are trading the Russell, initial resistance will be at 592 but a break here could mean the 620's again. We are looking higher in the NASDAQ , 1785 soon?
If you are following our short put recommendation, our clients were recommended to exit their positions by buying back the December 900 put this morning. Fills were coming in anywhere from 3.40 to 3.85.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
October 28 - We recommended that our clients sell the November S&P 960 puts for $8. There were a few filled in the overnight trading session, but unfortunately the market turned without us. Those that were able to get a fill, were recommended to buy the option back at $3 to take a quick profit. We suspect that this order will get filled by tomorrow. If so, the trade locks in a quick $250 per contract before commissions and fees.
- November 4 - Our clients were filled on the recommended GTC order to buy back the November 960 puts for $3.
October 30 - Our clients were recommended to sell the December S&P 900 puts for about $8. Fills were coming in from $7.75 to $9.
- November 6 - clients were recommended to exit their positions by buying back the December 900 put this morning. Fills were coming in anywhere from 3.40 to 3.85.
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.carleygarnertrading.com/
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
