MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, NOV. 6, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.
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TRADE ALERTS: None for Friday.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long Dec corn from 364 1/4 down to 373 3/4.
Long Dec mini wheat from 487 1/2 up to 504.
Short March sugar from 24.25 down to 23.75.
GRAIN COMMENTS: Each grain continues to have problems at their current resistance levels. Without an exception they are all backing off from them again.
DEC CORN: I moved stops up to 373 3/4 today as corn is having trouble getting over 400. It did not hold at the 20 day MA today but does have support at 375. Closed 376 1/2, down 7 1/2.
Position: Long 384 1/2 (11.3).
Projection: 450.
DEC MINI WHEAT: It still needs to get over 525. Since my last report it has not been able to do so. It held at the 20 day moving average today and had a very narrow range. Move stops up from 487 1/2 to 504. Closed 512 1/4, down 8 3/4.
Position: Long 519 1/2 (11.3).
Projection: 625.
JAN MINI BEANS: They made a second attempt to get over 1025 both Tuesday and Wednesday and could not do it. They have been selling off from that level now and are back under the 20 day moving average. They could test 950. Just watching. Closed 972, down 27.
DEC MEAL: Last time I pointed out the 310 resistance. That still remains their problem. It has sold off from that level and almost reached the 290 support today. Bottom line is that it has been in a range between 310 down to 290 approximately since mid October. Just watching. Closed 291.30, down 10.30.
DEC BEAN OIL: I attempted to buy it today but it sold off instead. Its problem area is 38.00 and yesterday's attempt to get over it has obviously failed. Just watching. Closed 37.18, down 37.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: They have been pushing into resistance for four days. They finally sold off from that level (58.50) today. They do have support down at 55.00. That is also where the 20 day MA intersects too. This sell-off could set up another buying opportunity. Closed 56.60, down 1.20.
DEC CATTLE: They have been attempting to get over 86.25 all week. Their low today was 86.25. They continue to have a sell signal that is still intact. I see nothing to do. Closed 86.35, up .10.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It continues to be stuck in the range mentioned last time. It has two buy signals but that has done nothing for cotton. Long term it is in resistance and that concerns me. So far it holds to the 20 day MA each day on the daily chart but that is about it. I see nothing to do. Closed 67.41, down 70.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: The key reversal bottom mentioned last time continues to hold the market. It has rallied and is now pushing up against the 20 day MA that intersects at approximately 115.80. The sell-off that started earlier this week has not followed through so far. The 110.00 support stopped it. It has resistance between 117.00 and 118.00. The major resistance is at 120.00. It is still giving every indication of a potential top in this area. Closed 115.35, up 45..
DEC COFFEE: An inside day triggered a buy yesterday. The follow through has not been there. It was triggered when the market rallied over 142.05. It has a lot of positives now longer term but is sitting in the same area that caused problems in the past and has resistance at 145.00. Just watching for now. Closed 142.10, up 1.35.
DEC COCOA: I lowered the stop on my short position very close because I did not like the fact that it was not following through. I was stopped out. It continued to not follow through until today. It then sold off to 31.88. Grrrrr. Just watching for now. Closed 32.18, down 54.
Position: Short 32.57 (11.2). Exit 33.08 (11.4). Loss $510.
MAR SUGAR: It triggered a sell today with good follow through. It also closed under the 20 day moving average. Today's low 23.95. Keep stops at 24.25 for now. Closed 22.76, down 83.
Position: Short 23.43 (11.5).
Projection: 20.00.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
