MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., NOV. 4, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December mini yen. Sell 110.32 stop. Protective stop 111.33. Potential projection 108.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. The weekly chart is in a resistance area formed late last year that formed a major top.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top several weeks ago.
4. The daily chart formed a key reversal top on Monday.
5. On the daily chart, a sell signal would push the yen under the 20 day moving average.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December 10 year notes. Sell 117.275 stop. Protective stop 118.290. Potential projection 116.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has two sell signals that are still intact.
2. Both the monthly and weekly charts are selling off from the 118.240 resistance level.
3. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. On the daily chart, notes closed back under the 20 day MA today.
5. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: This market's daily formation is very strange. It had been consolidating for months (as pointed out before) and broke out to the downside. It did not follow through. It rallied and then a couple of weeks ago broke out to the upside but, again, did not have much follow through, considering the size of the consolidation. It then sold off back into the consolidation but is holding. It tested its 20 day MA both yesterday and today. It formed a key reversal today. Will it now produce a rally worthy of the consolidation? The long term charts lean towards a rally. Closed 295.60, up 3.09.
DEC MINI GOLD: It made new contract highs today based on the news that India bought a lot of gold. Longer term the current rally does have potential to 1100.00. Since gold is trading in new ground, so to speak, and you don't have any past reference, it is difficult to really determine the potential. Today's high 1088.50. Closed 1084.90, up 30.90.
DEC MINI SILVER: I have attempted to short it. After consolidating, it rallied instead. That was stopped by the 20 day MA. It is also running into resistance in the 17.500 area. This current rally could be the start of another wave up. If that be the case, it should take out 18.000 eventually. Today's high 17.350. Closed 17.180, up .740.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
DEC MINI CRUDE OIL: Over the last two days it has formed a double bottom (76.55). It has support under that level going back to June. It was also an outside day. As is usually the case with crude, to try a trade costs too much in terms of risk. It does have a previous sell signal but that could change tomorrow if the outside day triggers a buy. It has also been holding at the 20 day MA so a rally could be setting up. Closed 79.60, up 1.47.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I have attempted to short it. The price has not been reached. I will try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 110.73, up 7.
DEC SWISS FRANC: It triggered a sell today from yesterday's inside day. Today's rally was stopped by the 20 day moving average. The one drawback with this scenario is that the swiss has good support at 97.00 on the daily chart and it did attempt to hold that today. Long term it has been struggling at exactly the same level that topped the market in July of 2008. Closed 97.37, down 37.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today. It rallied to 77.500. More and more positives are developing. It persists in holding at the 20 day MA on the daily chart. Long term it held at the 75.000 major support and is attempting to hold in support formed in early 2008. Watching closely. Closed 76.570, up .110.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: It triggered a sell on Friday on the daily chart. It has followed through but is holding at good support formed at 148.000. I was interested in buying a sell-off but it is starting to form negative signs long term too - like a double top on the weekly plus it has sold off from a previous resistance area. The weekly also triggered a preliminary sell this week. Watching closely. Closed 147.010, down 50.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It looks the most positive of the currencies. It has had an extensive sell-off and is deep into the huge consolidation it broke out of in early October. It has very strong support at 92.00. It is caught in a wedge between 92.00 and 94.00. Watching closely to buy. Closed 93.67, up 98.
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: I have attempted to short them but the price has not been reached. They did rally but have been stopped by the 118.240 resistance area for three days in a row. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 118.050, down .105.
DEC BONDS: Once again they sold off from the 120.10 resistance area. For three days they tried to get over it without success. Consequently they sold off today down to 118.24 and are again back under the 20 day MA. That coupled with that resistance has not been helpful for any sustained rally. Today was a huge outside day. A sell-off under 118.27 would be triggering a short. Just looking at the daily chart, they appear to be forming a huge top. Closed 119.02, down 24.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
