MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., NOV. 4, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you're able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you don't have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.
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TRADE ALERTS: None for Wed.
GRAIN COMMENTS: As of this writing all the grains have rallied over their downtrend lines formed since the June highs - another potentially technical plus for the markets. The only exception is the beans. They rallied right up to it and stopped.
DEC CORN: I have attempted to buy it. It finally reached my price today with follow through to 395 3/4. The next hurtle is 400 but I suspect the entire sell-off was to set up for another attempt at that level. Keep stops at 364 1/4. Closed 390, up 7 3/4.
Position: Long 384 1/2 (11.3).Projection: 450.
DEC MINI WHEAT: It finally triggered a buy today but has not had the follow through that the corn has. Today's high 520 3/4 Its next hurtle is 525. Keep stops at 487 1/2. Closed 515 3/4, down 1.0
Position: Long 519 1/2 (11.3).
Projection: 487 1/2
JAN SOYBEANS: A huge outside day triggered a buy today. I elected to not recommend a trade because, as mentioned before, they were in resistance. It now appears that the 1000 problem area has been cleared and the next hurtle is 1025. Today's high 1021. Closed 1010 1/2, up 12 1/2.
DEC MEAL: While the other grains sold off recently, meal turned around sooner and has shown more strength. It did the same thing earlier this year when they initially rallied prior to the top in June. Today's high is 312.50. It is running into resistance around 310.00. Closed 306.40, up 3.70.
DEC BEAN OIL: I attempted to buy it couple of days ago but it triggered a sell instead. That did not last long. It turned around yesterday and formed a key reversal bottom. If there is follow through with this attempt to rally, it should take out the double top formed last week in the high 38.00 level. Closed 37.53, up .74.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: Yesterday they came within a full point of my projections. Today I moved my stop up further to 57.20 and was stopped out with a profit. Closed 57.55, down 17.
Position: Long 54.55 (10.26). Exit 57.15 (11.3). Profit $1040.
DEC CATTLE: Since my last report they have been selling off from that 87.50 problem area. They made a low last Friday at 85.20. An inside day yesterday triggered another sell today. I really don't trust it because this recent sell-off could be a correction to a first wave up on the daily chart. I prefer to watch. Closed 85.70, down 52.50.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It continues to churn around between 66.50 up to 68.70. It did trigger a buy yesterday but gave all of that back today as it continues to consolidate. I'm just watching for now. Closed 67.45, down 19.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: I have pointed out recently that OJ normally has pretty steep sell-offs. It consolidated around 115.00 for some time before finally starting to sell off yesterday. It made a low today at 109.35 and formed a key reversal bottom. If it follows past behavior, this sell-off is not over with yet. I still see the potential to reach 100.00. Closed 111.95, up 60.
DEC COFFEE: Stops were reached on Friday. Since then it rallied to 143.10 yesterday. Today it formed an inside day but you would need to risk too much to warrant a trade. Just watching. Closed 141.10, down 1.65.
Position: Short 134.85 (10.28). Exit 138.00 (10.30). Loss $1181.25.
DEC COCOA: It triggered a sell on Monday but has not been following through. I moved the stop down today to 33.05 to limit loss as it rallied up to the 33.00 resistance. Closed 32.74, up 45.
Position: Short 32.57 (11.2).
Projection 31.00.
MARCH SUGAR: Stops were reached on Monday and it has continued to rally since. Today's high 24.00. It also rallied over the 20 day moving average yesterday which is a positive development. On the daily chart, sugar still remains in a downtrend in spite of this rally. The area to watch now is 24.68. Taking that out would start to negate that near term trend. Closed 23.97, up 53.
Position: Short 22.67 (10.26). Exit 23.35 (11.2). Loss $761.60.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
