This report was sent to subscribers on 10/31/09 8:00 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 11/2/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Crude Oil

After the close on 11/2/09: My pivot acted as support and was 76.85, just 0.29 from the actual low, and my resistance was 78.99, just 0.33 from the actual high.

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Green uptrend line was violated and closing below the red bracket line targets a retest of the long term uptrend line near $73. Friday's high is resistance.

Dec. Crude Oil for 11/2/09

I have been saying for weeks "What the equities market & the $ does from here, will help or hurt crude oil".       

In my daily numbers on Friday my pivot acted as resistance and was $0.25 from the actual high; my support and was $0.18 from the actual low.

Crude Oil: Spot on numbers make it easy to trade, selling at the pivot was the only signal and profit before the close would have produced a nice gain near the support on Friday.

The bottom line for me is all in the charts and numbers, not the fundamentals especially in the crude oil market. This market rallied into nosebleed highs on continuing bearish news in 2008. We have rallied recently on bearish news as far as supply/demand is concerned, but this market is really not driven by the basic fundamentals, instead it is money flow, asset allocation, market sentiment, and the dollar. This is why I will not waste my time or yours on writing about what you can read from "the analysts and brokers" which are market reporters of news and give you their opinion on the market. What is your opinion? That is where you should put your money, not on their opinion especially when they do NOT have money on the same trade they recommend to you. You can use their opinion to help you, but make your own decisions. Simple math says that there is a 50/50 chance the market will go up or down on any given day, so why does it seem like they are not right half the time? Even "knowing" where the market is going is only 1/5 the battle in trading, the ability to manage time (you do not get stopped out or incur an unreasonable loss before (and if) the market goes your way), execution, patience, chart locations and numbers to trade with are the other 4/5.

That is why I created my daily numbers service, to offer to the public what I have used for "real time trading" over 3 decades, and currently trade a $1 million fund account using the same numbers, charts, and tell you what I want to do, not what YOU should do. What is right for me might not be right for you, you might want to do the opposite, but even then it is helpful because let's say you want to buy, and I am short, you might wait to see if I am right and be able to buy where I am getting out, or buy anyway but with caution. The one thing you will learn is to not fight my charts or numbers.     

I think the gap at $74.71 will be good support on Monday seeing as the market is extremely oversold, that is not to say with a stronger dollar it cannot go down, but I think at the long term bracket line that we are at now should hold or the bulls might throw in the towel all the way down near this gap. If that happens, I would sell a corrective rally when it tries to recapture the uptrend line and sell it there.  

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  The 9 markets now covered daily are November soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

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                     Howard Tyllas            

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Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.