The Financials Pit Review
For the week of November 2nd, 2009
By PitGuru Frank LaMantia
S&P & Currencies
How many times can CIT go to bankruptcy court without actually going bankrupt?1 I am tired of seeing them in the news; maybe another lender should come to the market. Oh, how about the government! Small to midsized companies may not be getting the loans they need to survive because of companies like CIT struggling. The small mom and pop shops are already in competition with Wal-Mart, K-Mart, and the Lowes of the world, so why can't they get the bridge loans that the financial institutions are getting? I have the answer: because they are not too big to fail! Retail stores could be in trouble if CIT fails. Last week the market was pummeled by sellers, shaky earnings, and job losses even though GDP showed growth.2 The S&P fell over 20 points to 1032 on Friday with no real news. Traders became wary of stock prices and decided that many were over priced compared to the market.
In pre-market trading the market is up on Ford’s (F) 1 billion dollar quarterly profit announcement.3 The car industry in the United States has been hit very hard by the recession. Ford has been the only car company to not need bankruptcy protection. Seeing profits is an excellent sign! Also, Humana (HUM) - the insurance company - posted a 65% increase in third quarter profit.4 Is anyone else tired of hearing about Goldman Sachs and how much money and power they have? Could they being buying Fannie tax credits to get in close with the government?
Monday is important because the ISM and pending home sales numbers will be announced. The ISM is expected to rise to 535 and pending home sales is expected to be in negative territory, down 0.1%. Chicago ISM was positive which might carry over to the overall ISM number. This number was 6.4 in a prior announcement. Where is housing going? Foreclosure? Short sales? States like California, Florida, and Michigan might be in trouble over the next few years. Tuesday, factory orders are forecasted to be 1.2%. Let's just say Wednesday might be a nutty day! ADP employment numbers will be announced and are forecast to be down -235k, but this is not the main focus. The Fed will meet and discuss raising rates 0.25 of a point. In my opinion, this is a no win situation. If the Fed raises rates traders and consumers may become nervous and think inflation has already set in. If the Fed decides not to raise rates the Fed will have to defend itself on when a good time to raise rates will be. Thursday, productivity is expected to be 6.5% and initial claims jobless claims (forecasted to grow to 525k) will be announced. Friday, most people throughout the nation will be watching the unemployment rate. Many of you already know the number is around 10% but this is vague to Wall Street. If it’s 9.9% the market might think unemployment is slowing; if it reaches 10% or more people could get nervous. I thought Obama was supposed to be creating jobs? The only thing being reported is job losses!
***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
1 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aGugBgO.xUZw
2 http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/20091030_GDP_rises__but_expert_says_recovery_still_needs_help.html
3 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091102-706509.html
4 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hE6WEE7ssR9YTSMPOaHxvK2FywtAD9BNF05G0
5 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-down-before-ism-report-debt-estimates-2009-11-02
